TrueSplits

Tyler Shough

QB · NO · on the draft board

market valueQB19· 581 value· tier 38· ▼ down 67 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
14.4PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (14.4) · 11 games
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

14.4
Avg PPG (split)
17.4
Median week
21.9
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 49% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
12%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 14 chances
-1.9%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (NO)
10%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (NO)
+0.6%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.68s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 11 games, Tyler Shough averaged 14.4 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292

Expect about 223 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 110 and 292, with a 75% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

11 games · 14.4 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
3@SEAL000004%!Rattlertough0.0
8TBL1280112054%Shoughsoft4.3
9@LAL176112090%Shoughmid9.2
10@CARW28220-3082%Shoughtough19.0
12ATLL2430122095%Shoughmid7.9
13@MIAL2392118099%Shoughsoft17.4
14@TBW14401552100%Shoughsoft21.3
15CARW2721032099%Shoughtough18.1
16NYJW308108097%Shoughsoft17.1
17@TENW333206098%Shoughmid21.9
18@ATLL25911341100%Shoughmid21.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 8Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +4.5% (-13.5%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — NOvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
@TB
Wk 16
ARI
Wk 17
@ATL
Full season
Wk 1
@DET
Wk 2
@BAL
Wk 3
LV
Wk 4
ATL
Wk 5
MIN
Wk 6
@NYG
Wk 7
PIT
Wk 9
CLE
Wk 10
CAR
Wk 11
@CHI
Wk 12
@CIN
Wk 13
GB
Wk 14
@CAR
Wk 15
@TB
Wk 16
ARI
Wk 17
@ATL
Wk 18
TB

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.