TrueSplits

Nico Collins

WR · HOU · on the draft board

market valueWR9· 5,216 value· tier 14· ▼ down 129 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
15.1PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (15.1) · 15 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

15.1
Avg PPG (split)
14.5
Median week
24.2
Ceiling
5.5
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 19%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
13%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 20 chances
-0.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (HOU)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (HOU)
12.9
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.3 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
34%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+1.7
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 15 games, Nico Collins averaged 15.1 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 217
9737% bust24% @1.5x327

Expect about 217 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 97 and 327, with a 37% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

15 games · 15.1 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@LAL325084%Stroudsoft5.5
2TBL352190%Stroudmid14.2
3@JAXL8104186%Stroudmid22.4
4TENW479086%Stroudsoft11.9
5@BALW452157%Stroudsoft16.0
7@SEAL427051%Stroudtough6.7
9DENL775079%Millstough14.5
10JAXW7136089%Millsmid22.6
11@TENW992184%Millssoft24.2
12BUFW355075%Millstough8.5
13@INDW598075%Stroudsoft21.5
14@KCW4121081%Stroudtough16.1
15ARIW385273%Stroudmid23.5
16LVW459080%Stroudmid9.9
17@LACW357068%Stroudtough8.7

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.3yd (2.42yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — HOUvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Full season
Wk 1
BUF
Wk 2
CIN
Wk 3
@IND
Wk 4
DAL
Wk 5
@TEN
Wk 6
@JAX
Wk 7
NYG
Wk 9
@LAC
Wk 10
@CLE
Wk 11
IND
Wk 12
BAL
Wk 13
@PIT
Wk 14
@WAS
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Wk 18
TEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.