TrueSplits

DeVonta Smith

WR · PHI · on the draft board

market valueWR13· 4,023 value· tier 20· ▼ down 323 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
11.9PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (11.9) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

11.9
Avg PPG (split)
9.3
Median week
33.3
Ceiling
1.8
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 12%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
8%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 12 chances
-1.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (PHI)
10%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (PHI)
12.0
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.8 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
32%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
-0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, DeVonta Smith averaged 11.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 208
9340% bust21% @1.5x313

Expect about 208 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 93 and 313, with a 40% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 11.9 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1DALW316089%Hurtssoft4.6
2@KCW453075%Hurtstough9.3
3LAW860196%Hurtssoft20.0
4@TBW229091%Hurtsmid4.9
5DENL8114098%Hurtstough19.4
6@NYGL449096%Hurtssoft8.9
7@MINW9183188%Hurtstough33.3
8NYGW684090%Hurtssoft14.4
10@GBW469192%Hurtsmid16.9
11DETW18097%Hurtssoft1.8
12@DALL689095%Hurtssoft14.9
13CHIL548094%Hurtssoft9.8
14@LACL437097%Hurtstough7.7
15LVW250052%Hurtsmid7.0
16@WASW642186%Hurtssoft16.2
17@BUFW225085%Hurtstough4.5
18WASL352014%!McKeesoft8.2

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 2Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.6yd (2.83.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — PHIvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
SEA
Wk 16
HOU
Wk 17
@SF
Full season
Wk 1
WAS
Wk 2
@TEN
Wk 3
@CHI
Wk 4
LA
Wk 5
@JAX
Wk 6
CAR
Wk 7
DAL
Wk 8
@WAS
Wk 9
NYG
Wk 11
PIT
Wk 12
@DAL
Wk 13
@ARI
Wk 14
IND
Wk 15
SEA
Wk 16
HOU
Wk 17
@SF
Wk 18
@NYG

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.