TrueSplits

J.K. Dobbins

RB · DEN · on the draft board

community activityADP rising
market valueRB33· 1,074 value· tier 35· ▼ down 63 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
11.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (11.6) · 10 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

11.6
Avg PPG (split)
12.8
Median week
15.5
Ceiling
4
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 21%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
12%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 20 chances
+1.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (DEN)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (DEN)
+1.08
Rush yds over exp / att
efficiency vs his blocking
37%
Stacked boxes
carries vs 8+ defenders

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 10 games, J.K. Dobbins averaged 11.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194

Expect about 119 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 39 and 194, with a 68% chance of finishing below replacement (148).

Game log

10 games · 11.6 PPG avg
WkOppRush ydTDRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1TENW63125053%Nixmid14.8
2@INDL76119045%Nixtough15.5
3@LACL83110067%Nixtough15.3
4CINW101014044%Nixsoft11.5
5@PHIW79115053%Nixmid15.4
6@NYJW40000050%Nixsoft4.0
7NYGW8101-1049%Nixsoft9.0
8DALW1110210052%Nixsoft14.1
9@HOUW6101-2046%Nixtough6.9
10LVW77017052%Nixmid9.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Rush yards over expected / att — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 10

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.3 (1.11.4). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — DENvs RB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Full season
Wk 1
@KC
Wk 2
JAX
Wk 3
LA
Wk 4
@SF
Wk 5
@LAC
Wk 6
SEA
Wk 7
@ARI
Wk 8
KC
Wk 9
@CAR
Wk 11
LV
Wk 12
@PIT
Wk 13
MIA
Wk 14
@NYJ
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Wk 18
LAC

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.