Derrick Henry
RB · BAL · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Across all 17 games, Derrick Henry averaged 16.4 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 212 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 69 and 348, with a 29% chance of finishing below replacement (148).
Game log
17 games · 16.4 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rush yd | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @BUFL | 169 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 57% | Jackson | soft | 29.2 |
| 2 | CLEW | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61% | Jackson | mid | 2.3 |
| 3 | DETL | 50 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 49% | Jackson | tough | 10.7 |
| 4 | @KCL | 42 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 38%! | Jackson | tough | 7.8 |
| 5 | HOUL | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 65% | Rush | tough | 9.3 |
| 6 | LAL | 122 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 49% | Rush | mid | 14.0 |
| 8 | CHIW | 71 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58% | Huntley | soft | 19.1 |
| 9 | @MIAW | 119 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 64% | Jackson | mid | 13.1 |
| 10 | @MINW | 75 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 67% | Jackson | tough | 11.4 |
| 11 | @CLEW | 103 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 54% | Jackson | mid | 20.2 |
| 12 | NYJW | 64 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 56% | Jackson | soft | 22.8 |
| 13 | CINL | 60 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 40% | Jackson | soft | 17.4 |
| 14 | PITL | 94 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 54% | Jackson | tough | 11.2 |
| 15 | @CINW | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37%! | Jackson | soft | 10.0 |
| 16 | NEL | 128 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44% | Huntley | tough | 22.8 |
| 17 | @GBW | 216 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63% | Huntley | mid | 45.6 |
| 18 | @PITL | 126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71% | Jackson | tough | 12.6 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +1.7 (0.7 → 2.5). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.