A.J. Brown

WR · NE · on the draft board

market valueWR7· 6,161 value· tier 9· ▲ up 796 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR

14.7PPG

+0 vs 2025 avg (14.7) · 15 games

SeasonLive · Free

Game script & venueLive · Free

Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free

Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)

any snaps

Honest filtersLive · Free

Scoring

Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games

Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

14.7

Avg PPG (split)

12.1

Median week

35.2

Ceiling

1.8

Floor

start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 19%

Usage & role context — 2025Prior season

Red-zone role

share of team RZ opps · 13 chances

-1.5%

Team pass rate (PROE)

balanced play-caller (PHI)

10%

Team play-action

of dropbacks (PHI)

11.6

Target depth (aDOT)

avg air yards per target

2.2 yd

Separation

avg at the catch point

33%

Air-yards share

of the team's intended air yards

+1.1

YAC vs expected

yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 15 games, A.J. Brown averaged 14.7 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 222

9935% bust26% @1.5x334

Expect about 222 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 99 and 334, with a 35% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

15 games · 14.7 PPG avg

Wk	Opp	Rec	Yds	TD	Snap	QB	Def	Pts
1	DALW	1	8	0	87%	Hurts	soft	1.8
2	@KCW	5	27	0	97%	Hurts	tough	7.7
3	LAW	6	109	1	93%	Hurts	soft	22.9
4	@TBW	2	7	0	96%	Hurts	mid	2.7
5	DENL	5	43	0	93%	Hurts	tough	9.3
6	@NYGL	6	80	0	96%	Hurts	soft	14.0
7	@MINW	4	121	2	92%	Hurts	tough	28.1
10	@GBW	2	13	0	78%	Hurts	mid	3.3
11	DETW	7	49	0	93%	Hurts	soft	11.9
12	@DALL	8	110	1	94%	Hurts	soft	25.0
13	CHIL	10	132	2	96%	Hurts	soft	35.2
14	@LACL	6	100	0	97%	Hurts	tough	16.0
15	LVW	2	41	1	72%	Hurts	mid	12.1
16	@WASW	9	95	0	87%	Hurts	soft	18.5
17	@BUFW	5	68	0	89%	Hurts	tough	11.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025

Wk 2Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.5yd (2 → 2.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — NEvs WR · 2025 defenses

Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 0 soft, 2 tough

Wk 15

@KC

Wk 16

@NYJ

Wk 17

DEN

Full season

Wk 1

@SEA

Wk 2

PIT

Wk 3

@JAX

Wk 4

@BUF

Wk 5

Wk 6

NYJ

Wk 7

@CHI

Wk 8

@MIA

Wk 9

Wk 10

@DET

Wk 12

@LAC

Wk 13

BUF

Wk 14

MIN

Wk 15

@KC

Wk 16

@NYJ

Wk 17

DEN

Wk 18

MIA

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.