TrueSplits

Christian Watson

WR · GB · on the draft board

market valueWR27· 2,061 value· tier 29· ▲ up 658 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
13.2PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (13.2) · 10 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

13.2
Avg PPG (split)
11.2
Median week
24.9
Ceiling
3.7
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 27%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
4%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 7 chances
-3.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (GB)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (GB)
17.6
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.0 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
24%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.7
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 10 games, Christian Watson averaged 13.2 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258

Expect about 171 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 77 and 258, with a 57% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

10 games · 13.2 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
8@PITW485056%Lovesoft12.5
9CARL258066%Lovetough7.8
10PHIL245082%Lovetough6.5
11@NYGW446278%Lovesoft20.6
12MINW549074%Lovetough9.9
13@DETW480173%Lovesoft18.3
14CHIW489283%Lovesoft24.9
15@DENL329041%Lovetough5.9
16@CHIL217062%Willissoft3.7
17BALL5113162%Willissoft22.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 11Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +1.1yd (1.52.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — GBvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
MIA
Wk 16
@CHI
Wk 17
HOU
Full season
Wk 1
@MIN
Wk 2
@NYJ
Wk 3
ATL
Wk 4
@TB
Wk 5
CHI
Wk 6
DAL
Wk 7
@DET
Wk 8
CAR
Wk 9
@NE
Wk 10
MIN
Wk 12
@LA
Wk 13
@NO
Wk 14
BUF
Wk 15
MIA
Wk 16
@CHI
Wk 17
HOU
Wk 18
DET

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.