Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Across all 14 games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 20.4 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 126 and 336, with a 50% chance of finishing below replacement (257).
Game log
14 games · 20.4 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Pass yd | TD | INT | Rush yd | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LACL | 258 | 1 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 100% | Mahomes | tough | 26.0 |
| 2 | PHIL | 187 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 1 | 100% | Mahomes | mid | 22.1 |
| 3 | @NYGW | 224 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | mid | 13.2 |
| 4 | BALW | 270 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 92% | Mahomes | mid | 27.3 |
| 5 | @JAXL | 318 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 1 | 100% | Mahomes | tough | 26.7 |
| 6 | DETW | 257 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 100% | Mahomes | soft | 31.5 |
| 7 | LVW | 286 | 3 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 80% | Mahomes | tough | 26.2 |
| 8 | WASW | 299 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | soft | 23.0 |
| 9 | @BUFL | 250 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | tough | 10.5 |
| 11 | @DENL | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | tough | 13.3 |
| 12 | INDW | 352 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | mid | 17.1 |
| 13 | @DALL | 261 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | soft | 29.4 |
| 14 | HOUL | 160 | 0 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 100% | Mahomes | mid | 6.3 |
| 15 | LACL | 189 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 92% | Mahomes | tough | 13.1 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -3.2% (-2.2 → -5.4%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.