TrueSplits

TrueValue vs ADP

Every draftable player, ranked by his go-forward TrueValue — his real splits under his current situation (his most-common QB and durable role, never a fluky injury tail) — against where the market actually drafts him. Target / Fade calls are only made when the underlying gap reads as real signal, not week-to-week noise.

These calls do not claim a rank edge over the market — five backtested approaches lost to consensus ADP. See the full accuracy scoreboard →

Situation facts verified Aug 6, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026 · player data through the 2025 season · ADP updated Sep 23, 2026 (2026 · 12-team) · some situation facts are 48 days old and may have moved

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RBJahmyr Gibbs
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.01
RB1
TrueValue
21.6
RB2 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
8521% bust60% @1.5x426
market drafts him RB1, his splits rank him RB2
Why
Handcuff: Sione Vaki
RBBijan Robinson
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.02
RB2
TrueValue
18.7
RB7 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
8521% bust60% @1.5x426
market drafts him RB2, his splits rank him RB7 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 18.7 with Kirk Cousins in 2024; 22.7 with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025 (9g)
Handcuff: Brian Robinson Jr.
WRPuka NacuaQUESTIONABLE
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.03
WR1
TrueValue
23.4
WR1 · T1 · 16g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 280
12522% bust52% @1.5x422
Questionable
market drafts him WR1, his splits rank him WR1
Why
Handcuff: Davante Adams
WRJa'Marr Chase
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.04
WR2
TrueValue
21.7
WR2 · T2 · 24g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 270
12124% bust48% @1.5x406
market drafts him WR2, his splits rank him WR2
Why
Handcuff: Tee Higgins
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.05
WR3
TrueValue
21.2
WR4 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 263
11825% bust45% @1.5x396
market drafts him WR3, his splits rank him WR4
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Sam Darnold (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Rashid Shaheed
RBChristian McCaffrey
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
1.06
RB3
TrueValue
24.4
RB1 · T1 · 25g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
8521% bust60% @1.5x425
market drafts him RB3, his splits rank him RB1
Why
Handcuff: Kaelon Black
community activityADP rising
WRAmon-Ra St. Brown
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.07
WR4
TrueValue
19.1
WR6 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 256
11526% bust43% @1.5x386
market drafts him WR4, his splits rank him WR6
Why
Handcuff: Jameson Williams
RBJonathan Taylor
IND · bye 13
FairSignal
ADP
1.08
RB4
TrueValue
20.9
RB3 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 253
8222% bust59% @1.5x414
market drafts him RB4, his splits rank him RB3
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Daniel Jones (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Seth McGowan
⚠ 12.9 in 5 games — daniel jones went out (wk 14)
RBDe'Von Achane
MIA · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.11
RB5
TrueValue
20.8
RB4 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB5, his splits rank him RB4
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Malik Willis (2026-08-06) — projected off established 20.8 (Tua Tagovailoa 2025)
Handcuff: Jaylen Wright
unconfirmed · camp reportWillis is QB1 (Tua to ATL) and the receiving room is gutted - Hill released, Waddle to DEN - so volume should funnel to Achane, but in a much weaker offense — ESPN/depth chart Aug 2026
WRCeeDee Lamb
DAL · bye 14
Fade
ADP
2.01
WR5
TrueValue
16.6
WR10 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 248
11128% bust39% @1.5x374
market drafts him WR5, his splits rank him WR10
Why
Handcuff: George Pickens
community activityADP falling
RBDerrick Henry
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
2.01
RB6
TrueValue
15.5
RB13 · T2 · 12g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB6, his splits rank him RB13
Why
Handcuff: Justice Hill
community activityADP rising
RBChase Brown
CIN · bye 6
Fade
ADP
2.02
RB7
TrueValue
16.2
RB12 · T2 · 23g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB7, his splits rank him RB12
Why
Handcuff: Samaje Perine
WRJustin Jefferson
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
2.02
WR6
TrueValue
18.7
WR7 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 238
10731% bust35% @1.5x359
market drafts him WR6, his splits rank him WR7
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kyler Murray (2026-09-02) — projected off established 18.7 (Sam Darnold 2024)
Handcuff: Jordan Addison
community activityADP falling
RBJames Cook III
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
2.03
RB8
TrueValue
18.8
RB6 · T2 · 16g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB8, his splits rank him RB6
Why
Handcuff: Ray Davis
community activityADP falling
WRA.J. BrownOUT
NE · bye 11
ADP
2.04
WR7
TrueValue
14.7
WR15 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 228
10233% bust30% @1.5x344
On injured reserve
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was PHI (2025 baseline), now NE
New situation: 2026 QB Drake Maye (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14.7 (Jalen Hurts 2025)
Behind Efton Chism III · Handcuff: Jeremiah Webb
unconfirmed · camp reportTraded PHI to NE - Drake Maye (ascending 2nd yr) is QB1 — NFL.com Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP rising
RBSaquon Barkley
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
2.05
RB9
TrueValue
14.5
RB21 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 226
7426% bust51% @1.5x370
market drafts him RB9, his splits rank him RB21
Why
Handcuff: Tank Bigsby
community activityADP rising
RBAshton Jeanty
LV · bye 13
Fair
ADP
2.07
RB10
TrueValue
15.0
RB19 · T2 · 15g
Edge
-9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 198
6532% bust41% @1.5x325
market drafts him RB10, his splits rank him RB19
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kirk Cousins (2026-09-02) — projected off established 15 (Geno Smith 2025)
Handcuff: Mike Washington Jr.
community activityADP falling
WRNico CollinsOUT
HOU · bye 8
ADP
2.07
WR8
TrueValue
14.8
WR13 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 220
9936% bust25% @1.5x331
Out
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
Handcuff: Xavier Hutchinson
community activityADP rising
RBKenneth Walker
KC · bye 5
Fair
ADP
2.09
RB11
TrueValue
11.3
RB25 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-14
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 189
6135% bust37% @1.5x309
market drafts him RB11, his splits rank him RB25
Why
New situation: was SEA (2025 baseline), now KC
Handcuff: Emmett Johnson
RBOmarion Hampton
LAC · bye 7
Fade
ADP
2.09
RB12
TrueValue
15.1
RB16 · T2 · 9g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 189
6135% bust37% @1.5x309
market drafts him RB12, his splits rank him RB16
Why
Handcuff: Keaton Mitchell
community activityADP rising
WRZay FlowersDOUBTFUL
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
2.12
WR9
TrueValue
14.4
WR17 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 214
9638% bust23% @1.5x323
Doubtful
market drafts him WR9, his splits rank him WR17
Why
Handcuff: Rashod Bateman
community activityADP rising
QBJosh Allen
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
2.12
QB1
TrueValue
22.8
QB1 · T1 · 16g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 327
16125% bust22% @1.5x427
market drafts him QB1, his splits rank him QB1
Why
Handcuff: Kyle Allen
community activityADP rising
WRMalik NabersMONITOR
NYG · bye 8
Fair
ADP
3.02
WR10
TrueValue
17.7
WR9 · T3 · 3g · small
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 211
9539% bust22% @1.5x318
Returning from ACL surgery - on track for Week 1
market drafts him WR10, his splits rank him WR9 — small sample, no strong call
Why
Handcuff: Malachi Fields
unconfirmed · camp reportAvoided the PUP list after ACL/meniscus surgery; practicing and on track for Week 1 - monitor — Beat reports Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
WRChris OlaveQUESTIONABLE
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
3.02
WR11
TrueValue
14.0
WR20 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 211
9439% bust22% @1.5x318
Questionable
market drafts him WR11, his splits rank him WR20
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14 (Derek Carr 2023)
Handcuff: Devaughn Vele
unconfirmed · camp reportShough is QB1 in 2026 (Rattler QB2) — Yahoo/beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP falling
WRDeVonta Smith
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
3.04
WR12
TrueValue
12.1
WR32 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-20
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 209
9440% bust21% @1.5x315
market drafts him WR12, his splits rank him WR32
Why
Handcuff: Dontayvion Wicks
community activityADP rising
RBBreece Hall
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
3.05
RB13
TrueValue
15.1
RB17 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB13, his splits rank him RB17
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Geno Smith (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15.1 (Aaron Rodgers 2024)
Handcuff: Braelon Allen
unconfirmed · camp reportGeno Smith starting - Fields to KC — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP rising
RBJavonte Williams
DAL · bye 14
Fair
ADP
3.06
RB14
TrueValue
15.2
RB15 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB14, his splits rank him RB15
Why
Handcuff: Emari Demercado
community activityADP rising
TETrey McBride
ARI · bye 14
FairSignal
ADP
3.06
TE1
TrueValue
19.6
TE1 · T1 · 12g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 192
9914% bust64% @1.5x285
market drafts him TE1, his splits rank him TE1
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Elijah Higgins
WRTee Higgins
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
3.07
WR13
TrueValue
18.5
WR8 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 208
9340% bust21% @1.5x313
market drafts him WR13, his splits rank him WR8 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 18.5 with Joe Burrow in 2024; 16.8 with Joe Flacco in 2025 (6g)
Behind Ja'Marr Chase · Handcuff: Andrei Iosivas
community activityADP rising
RBTravis Etienne Jr.
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
3.08
RB15
TrueValue
14.9
RB20 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB15, his splits rank him RB20
Why
New situation: was JAX (2025 baseline), now NO
Handcuff: Alvin Kamara
community activityADP rising
WRTetairoa McMillan
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
3.10
WR14
TrueValue
12.3
WR27 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-13
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 204
9241% bust19% @1.5x308
market drafts him WR14, his splits rank him WR27
Why
Handcuff: Jalen Coker
community activityADP falling
RBKyren Williams
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
3.11
RB16
TrueValue
15.5
RB14 · T2 · 17g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB16, his splits rank him RB14
Why
Handcuff: Blake Corum
community activityADP falling
RBCam SkatteboMONITOR
NYG · bye 8
Target
ADP
3.12
RB17
TrueValue
17.4
RB9 · T2 · 5g
Edge
+8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x298
Returning from ankle surgery - fully cleared, full camp participant
market drafts him RB17, his splits rank him RB9
Why
Handcuff: Devin Singletary
community activityADP rising
WREmeka Egbuka
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
3.12
WR15
TrueValue
11.5
WR35 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-20
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 202
9142% bust19% @1.5x305
market drafts him WR15, his splits rank him WR35
Why
Handcuff: Chris Godwin Jr.
community activityADP falling
TEBrock BowersDOUBTFUL
LV · bye 13
Fair
ADP
4.01
TE2
TrueValue
15.2
TE3 · T2 · 11g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 190
9814% bust63% @1.5x282
Doubtful
market drafts him TE2, his splits rank him TE3
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kirk Cousins (2026-09-02) — projected off established 15.2 (Geno Smith 2025)
Handcuff: Michael Mayer
community activityADP falling
WRDavante Adams
LAR · bye 11
Target
ADP
4.01
WR16
TrueValue
15.9
WR11 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 202
9042% bust18% @1.5x304
market drafts him WR16, his splits rank him WR11
Why
Behind Puka Nacua · Handcuff: Jordan Whittington
community activityADP rising
WRGarrett Wilson
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
4.01
WR17
TrueValue
14.8
WR14 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 202
9042% bust18% @1.5x304
market drafts him WR17, his splits rank him WR14
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Geno Smith (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14.8 (Aaron Rodgers 2024)
Handcuff: Adonai Mitchell
unconfirmed · camp reportGeno Smith in (from LV), Fields out - a QB upgrade — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP falling
WRLadd McConkeyQUESTIONABLE
LAC · bye 7
Fade
ADP
4.05
WR18
TrueValue
11.3
WR36 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-18
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 201
9043% bust18% @1.5x303
Questionable
market drafts him WR18, his splits rank him WR36
Why
Handcuff: Quentin Johnston
community activityADP falling
RBD'Andre Swift
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
4.07
RB18
TrueValue
14.3
RB22 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 162
5344% bust24% @1.5x265
market drafts him RB18, his splits rank him RB22
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Kyle Monangai
community activityADP rising
WRTerry McLaurin
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
4.09
WR19
TrueValue
15.5
WR12 · T3 · 15g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 199
8944% bust17% @1.5x299
market drafts him WR19, his splits rank him WR12 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 15.5 with Jayden Daniels in 2024; 14.3 with Marcus Mariota in 2025 (5g)
Handcuff: Stefon Diggs
community activityADP rising
QBDrake Maye
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
4.11
QB2
TrueValue
20.7
QB4 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 313
15429% bust17% @1.5x409
market drafts him QB2, his splits rank him QB4
Why
Handcuff: Tommy DeVito
community activityADP rising
RBQuinshon Judkins
CLE · bye 11
Fade
ADP
4.11
RB19
TrueValue
11.0
RB27 · T3 · 6g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 158
5146% bust22% @1.5x258
market drafts him RB19, his splits rank him RB27
Why
Handcuff: Raheim Sanders
community activityADP rising
WRDJ Moore
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
4.12
WR20
TrueValue
10.1
WR42 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-22
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 188
8448% bust13% @1.5x283
market drafts him WR20, his splits rank him WR42
Why
New situation: was CHI (2025 baseline), now BUF
Handcuff: Khalil Shakir
RBBucky Irving
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
5.01
RB20
TrueValue
13.8
RB23 · T2 · 10g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust20% @1.5x251
market drafts him RB20, his splits rank him RB23
Why
Handcuff: Kenny Gainwell
⚠ 11.1 in 6 games — returning (wk 13)
community activityADP falling
WRRome OdunzeQUESTIONABLE
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
5.02
WR21
TrueValue
12.2
WR29 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 181
8151% bust10% @1.5x273
Questionable
market drafts him WR21, his splits rank him WR29
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Luther Burden III
community activityADP rising
WRJaylen Waddle
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
5.02
WR22
TrueValue
12.9
WR24 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 180
8152% bust9% @1.5x271
market drafts him WR22, his splits rank him WR24
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now DEN
New situation: 2026 QB Bo Nix (2026-08-06) — projected off established 12.9 (Tua Tagovailoa 2025)
Handcuff: Courtland Sutton
unconfirmed · camp reportNo longer in Miami - now Denver's WR2 opposite Courtland Sutton, catching passes from Bo Nix — Depth chart/beat Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
WRChristian Watson
GB · bye 11
Fade
ADP
5.03
WR23
TrueValue
12.2
WR30 · T3 · 9g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 176
7954% bust8% @1.5x265
market drafts him WR23, his splits rank him WR30
Why
Handcuff: Jayden Reed
community activityADP rising
WRMike Evans
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
5.05
WR24
TrueValue
10.6
WR41 · T3 · 8g
Edge
-17
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR24, his splits rank him WR41
Why
New situation: was TB (2025 baseline), now SF
Handcuff: Deebo Samuel
community activityADP rising
QBJoe BurrowQUESTIONABLE
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
5.05
QB3
TrueValue
20.8
QB3 · T2 · 24g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390
Questionable
market drafts him QB3, his splits rank him QB3
Why
Handcuff: Joe Flacco
community activityADP rising
RBDavid Montgomery
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
5.06
RB21
TrueValue
9.8
RB31 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB21, his splits rank him RB31
Why
New situation: was DET (2025 baseline), now HOU
Handcuff: Woody Marks
community activityADP rising
RBBhayshul Tuten
JAX · bye 7
Fade
ADP
5.07
RB22
TrueValue
5.9
RB37 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB22, his splits rank him RB37
Why
Handcuff: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
community activityADP falling
WRAlec PierceOUT
IND · bye 13
ADP
5.08
WR25
TrueValue
12.2
WR31 · T3 · 10g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
On PUP (ankle) - Week 1 in doubt
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
Handcuff: Josh Downs
unconfirmed · camp reportOpened camp on Active/PUP after ankle clean-up; hoped back for Week 1 but the timeline may not cooperate — SI/beat Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
RBRhamondre Stevenson
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
5.08
RB23
TrueValue
12.8
RB24 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB23, his splits rank him RB24
Why
Handcuff: TreVeyon Henderson
community activityADP rising
WRDK Metcalf
PIT · bye 9
Fair
ADP
5.09
WR26
TrueValue
12.3
WR28 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR26, his splits rank him WR28
Why
Handcuff: Michael Pittman Jr.
community activityADP rising
WRParker Washington
JAX · bye 7
TargetSignal
ADP
5.10
WR27
TrueValue
14.4
WR18 · T3 · 10g
Edge
+9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR27, his splits rank him WR18
Why
Handcuff: Brian Thomas Jr.
community activityADP rising
WRLuther Burden III
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
5.10
WR28
TrueValue
8.5
WR51 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-23
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR28, his splits rank him WR51
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Behind Rome Odunze · Handcuff: Kalif Raymond
unconfirmed · camp reportSitting WR2 on the Aug depth chart; HC said in July his route tree had taken a step — Bears presser Jul; depth chart Aug 6
TEColston Loveland
CHI · bye 10
FairSignal
ADP
6.02
TE3
TrueValue
12.9
TE5 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 150
7724% bust40% @1.5x223
market drafts him TE3, his splits rank him TE5
Why
Handcuff: Cole Kmet
community activityADP falling
RBTreVeyon HendersonOUT
NE · bye 11
Signal
ADP
6.03
RB24
TrueValue
17.1
RB10 · T2 · 9g
Edge
+14
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 136
4456% bust10% @1.5x223
Out
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
Behind Rhamondre Stevenson · Handcuff: Corey Kiner
community activityADP falling
WRCourtland Sutton
DEN · bye 10
Target
ADP
6.03
WR29
TrueValue
12.9
WR25 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 170
7658% bust7% @1.5x256
market drafts him WR29, his splits rank him WR25
Why
Behind Jaylen Waddle · Handcuff: Marvin Mims Jr.
community activityADP falling
WRMarvin Harrison Jr.
ARI · bye 14
Fair
ADP
6.06
WR30
TrueValue
11.6
WR34 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 165
7461% bust6% @1.5x249
market drafts him WR30, his splits rank him WR34
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06) — projected off established 11.6 (Kyler Murray 2024)
Behind Michael Wilson · Handcuff: Kendrick Bourne
unconfirmed · camp reportKyler Murray traded to MIN - Brissett named starter (a downgrade) — AZ beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
RBTony Pollard
TEN · bye 9
Fade
ADP
6.07
RB25
TrueValue
11.0
RB28 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 134
4457% bust10% @1.5x220
market drafts him RB25, his splits rank him RB28
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Cam Ward (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Tyjae Spears
community activityADP rising
QBMatthew Stafford
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
6.10
QB4
TrueValue
20.6
QB5 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 289
14237% bust9% @1.5x378
market drafts him QB4, his splits rank him QB5
Why
Handcuff: Stetson Bennett IV
community activityADP rising
RBChuba Hubbard
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
6.10
RB26
TrueValue
8.3
RB34 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 134
4457% bust10% @1.5x220
market drafts him RB26, his splits rank him RB34
Why
Handcuff: Jonathon Brooks
⚠ 6.3 in 11 games — returning (wk 7)
community activityADP rising
TETyler Warren
IND · bye 13
FadeSignal
ADP
6.12
TE4
TrueValue
10.9
TE8 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE4, his splits rank him TE8
Why
Handcuff: Mo Alie-Cox
⚠ 6.3 in 5 games — daniel jones went out (wk 14)
community activityADP falling
QBJalen Hurts
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
7.01
QB5
TrueValue
18.8
QB11 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB5, his splits rank him QB11
Why
Handcuff: Andy Dalton
community activityADP rising
WRChris Godwin Jr.
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
7.03
WR31
TrueValue
9.2
WR46 · T3 · 9g
Edge
-15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 163
7362% bust5% @1.5x246
market drafts him WR31, his splits rank him WR46
Why
Behind Emeka Egbuka · Handcuff: Jalen McMillan
community activityADP rising
QBCaleb Williams
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
7.05
QB6
TrueValue
18.8
QB12 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB6, his splits rank him QB12
Why
Handcuff: Tyson Bagent
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy through camp; entering Year 2 in Ben Johnson's offense and looking sharper — Chicago Sun-Times Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
WRMichael Wilson
ARI · bye 14
TargetSignal
ADP
7.06
WR32
TrueValue
14.5
WR16 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+16
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 162
7363% bust5% @1.5x244
market drafts him WR32, his splits rank him WR16
Why
Handcuff: Marvin Harrison Jr.
community activityADP falling
WRQuentin Johnston
LAC · bye 7
Target
ADP
7.07
WR33
TrueValue
13.2
WR23 · T3 · 13g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 160
7264% bust5% @1.5x242
market drafts him WR33, his splits rank him WR23
Why
Behind Ladd McConkey · Handcuff: Tre' Harris
community activityADP rising
WRJordan Addison
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
7.08
WR34
TrueValue
14.2
WR19 · T3 · 15g
Edge
+15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 159
7165% bust5% @1.5x240
market drafts him WR34, his splits rank him WR19
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kyler Murray (2026-09-02) — projected off established 14.2 (Sam Darnold 2024)
Behind Justin Jefferson · Handcuff: Jauan Jennings
⚠ 6.3 in 8 games — j.j. mccarthy took over (wk 9)
unconfirmed · camp reportMurray named the Week 1 starter over J.J. McCarthy; the competition is closed — NFL.com/ESPN Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
WRXavier Worthy
KC · bye 5
Fade
ADP
7.09
WR35
TrueValue
8.6
WR50 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 158
7166% bust5% @1.5x238
market drafts him WR35, his splits rank him WR50
Why
Behind Rashee Rice · Handcuff: Tyquan Thornton
community activityADP rising
WRBrian Thomas Jr.
JAX · bye 7
Fade
ADP
7.10
WR36
TrueValue
9.9
WR44 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 157
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR36, his splits rank him WR44
Why
Behind Parker Washington · Handcuff: Jakobi Meyers
community activityADP falling
WRMatthew Golden
GB · bye 11
Fade
ADP
8.01
WR37
TrueValue
5.5
WR56 · T4 · 12g
Edge
-19
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR37, his splits rank him WR56
Why
Behind Jayden Reed · Handcuff: Skyy Moore
community activityADP rising
TESam LaPorta
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
8.02
TE5
TrueValue
11.9
TE7 · T3 · 9g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE5, his splits rank him TE7
Why
Handcuff: Brock Wright
community activityADP rising
WRStefon Diggs
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
8.02
WR38
TrueValue
12.4
WR26 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR38, his splits rank him WR26
Why
New situation: was NE (2025 baseline), now WAS
New situation: 2026 QB Jayden Daniels (2026-08-07) — projected off established 12.4 (Drake Maye 2025)
Behind Terry McLaurin · Handcuff: Antonio Williams
community activityADP rising
WRMichael Pittman Jr.QUESTIONABLE
PIT · bye 9
Fair
ADP
8.03
WR39
TrueValue
11.7
WR33 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
Questionable
market drafts him WR39, his splits rank him WR33
Why
New situation: was IND (2025 baseline), now PIT
Behind DK Metcalf · Handcuff: Roman Wilson
community activityADP falling
RBJacory Croskey-Merritt
WAS · bye 7
Fade
ADP
8.03
RB27
TrueValue
7.2
RB35 · T3 · 8g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB27, his splits rank him RB35
Why
Handcuff: Rachaad White
community activityADP rising
WRJayden Reed
GB · bye 11
Target
ADP
8.03
WR40
TrueValue
11.2
WR37 · T3 · 18g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR40, his splits rank him WR37
Why
Behind Christian Watson · Handcuff: Matthew Golden
community activityADP rising
TETucker KraftMONITOR
GB · bye 11
Fair
ADP
8.06
TE6
TrueValue
14.7
TE4 · T2 · 8g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
Returning from ACL surgery - practicing, Week 1 likely but unconfirmed
market drafts him TE6, his splits rank him TE4
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Jordan Love (2026-08-07)
Handcuff: Jonnu Smith
community activityADP rising
QBTrevor Lawrence
JAX · bye 7
Fair
ADP
8.11
QB7
TrueValue
19.9
QB8 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12749% bust5% @1.5x337
market drafts him QB7, his splits rank him QB8
Why
Handcuff: Quinn Ewers
community activityADP falling
QBJared Goff
DET · bye 6
Fade
ADP
8.12
QB8
TrueValue
17.5
QB16 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12750% bust5% @1.5x337
market drafts him QB8, his splits rank him QB16
Why
Handcuff: Joshua Dobbs
community activityADP rising
RBJosh Jacobs
GB · bye 11
Fair
ADP
9.02
RB28
TrueValue
16.8
RB11 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+17
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB28, his splits rank him RB11 — depth chart lists him behind Kaleb Johnson; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Kaleb Johnson
community activityADP falling
QBPatrick MahomesMONITOR
KC · bye 5
Fair
ADP
9.03
QB9
TrueValue
20.4
QB7 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
Returning from ACL surgery - cleared for camp, not yet cleared for games; targeting Week 1
market drafts him QB9, his splits rank him QB7
Why
Handcuff: Justin Fields
community activityADP rising
WRJalen Coker
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
9.04
WR41
TrueValue
8.4
WR52 · T3 · 10g
Edge
-11
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 146
6675% bust5% @1.5x220
market drafts him WR41, his splits rank him WR52
Why
Behind Tetairoa McMillan · Handcuff: Xavier Legette
community activityADP rising
WRJosh Downs
IND · bye 13
Fade
ADP
9.05
WR42
TrueValue
8.7
WR49 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 145
6576% bust5% @1.5x219
market drafts him WR42, his splits rank him WR49
Why
Behind Alec Pierce · Handcuff: Keenan Allen
community activityADP falling
WRRashid Shaheed
SEA · bye 11
Fair
ADP
9.08
WR43
TrueValue
10.7
WR40 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR43, his splits rank him WR40
Why
New situation: was NO (2023 baseline), now SEA
Situation-dependent: established 10.7 with Derek Carr in 2023; 5.8 with Sam Darnold in 2025 (9g)
Behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Handcuff: Cooper Kupp
⚠ 5.8 in 9 games — sam darnold took over (wk 10)
community activityADP rising
WRDeebo Samuel Sr.
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
10.01
WR44
TrueValue
10.9
WR38 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR44, his splits rank him WR38 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 10.9 with Brock Purdy in 2024; 11 with Marcus Mariota in 2025 (8g)
Behind Mike Evans · Handcuff: Demarcus Robinson
unconfirmed · camp reportTarget share should rise with Pearsall out for the season — NFL.com/beat Aug 2026
QBBo Nix
DEN · bye 10
Fade
ADP
10.01
QB10
TrueValue
17.9
QB14 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB10, his splits rank him QB14
Why
Handcuff: Jarrett Stidham
community activityADP rising
RBJordan MasonOUT
MIN · bye 6
ADP
10.03
RB29
TrueValue
10.2
RB30 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
On injured reserve
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was SF (2024 baseline), now MIN
New situation: 2026 QB Kyler Murray (2026-09-02) — projected off established 10.2 (Brock Purdy 2024)
Behind Demond Claiborne
community activityADP rising
RBAaron Jones Sr.
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
10.04
RB30
TrueValue
10.4
RB29 · T3 · 9g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB30, his splits rank him RB29
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kyler Murray (2026-09-02) — projected off established 10.4 (J.J. McCarthy 2025)
Handcuff: DeeJay Dallas
unconfirmed · camp reportMurray named the Week 1 starter (competition closed); timeshare with J. Mason — NFL.com/ESPN Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
QBTyler Shough
NO · bye 8
Fade
ADP
10.04
QB11
TrueValue
15.8
QB19 · T2 · 10g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB11, his splits rank him QB19
Why
Handcuff: Spencer Rattler
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, entrenched as Saints' Week 1 starter (Rattler QB2) — Yahoo/Saints.com Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
QBJustin Herbert
LAC · bye 7
Fade
ADP
10.07
QB12
TrueValue
17.9
QB15 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB12, his splits rank him QB15
Why
Handcuff: Trey Lance
community activityADP falling
RBMarShawn Lloyd
GB · bye 11
Fair
ADP
10.07
RB31
TrueValue
2.8
RB38 · T4 · 1g · small
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB31, his splits rank him RB38 — small sample, no strong call
Why
Handcuff: Chris Brooks
community activityADP rising
RBRachaad White
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
11.01
RB32
TrueValue
8.4
RB33 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB32, his splits rank him RB33 — depth chart lists him behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was TB (2025 baseline), now WAS
Behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Handcuff: Kaytron Allen
community activityADP falling
TEKyle Pitts Sr.
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.01
TE7
TrueValue
8.0
TE11 · T4 · 14g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE7, his splits rank him TE11 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 8 with Kirk Cousins in 2024; 9.1 with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025 (9g)
Handcuff: Charlie Woerner
community activityADP falling
TEIsaiah Likely
NYG · bye 8
FairSignal
ADP
11.01
TE8
TrueValue
6.9
TE13 · T4 · 22g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE8, his splits rank him TE13
Why
New situation: was BAL (2025 baseline), now NYG
Handcuff: Theo Johnson
community activityADP rising
WRJerry Jeudy
CLE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.02
WR45
TrueValue
8.3
WR53 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 128
5786% bust5% @1.5x193
market drafts him WR45, his splits rank him WR53
Why
New situation: was DEN (2023 baseline), now CLE
Situation-dependent: established 8.3 with Russell Wilson in 2023; 6.7 with Shedeur Sanders in 2025 (8g)
Behind KC Concepcion · Handcuff: Isaiah Bond
community activityADP rising
WRJalen McMillanQUESTIONABLE
TB · bye 10
Fair
ADP
11.04
WR46
TrueValue
9.7
WR45 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
Questionable
market drafts him WR46, his splits rank him WR45
Why
Behind Chris Godwin Jr. · Handcuff: Ted Hurst III
community activityADP rising
TEDalton Kincaid
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
11.05
TE9
TrueValue
10.8
TE9 · T3 · 11g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE9, his splits rank him TE9
Why
Handcuff: Dawson Knox
community activityADP rising
RBKenny Gainwell
TB · bye 10
FairSignal
ADP
11.05
RB33
TrueValue
17.8
RB8 · T2 · 8g
Edge
+25
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 108
3576% bust5% @1.5x178
market drafts him RB33, his splits rank him RB8 — depth chart lists him behind Bucky Irving; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was PIT (2025 baseline), now TB
Behind Bucky Irving · Handcuff: Sean Tucker
community activityADP falling
RBBlake Corum
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.06
RB34
TrueValue
7.2
RB36 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 107
3577% bust5% @1.5x175
market drafts him RB34, his splits rank him RB36 — depth chart lists him behind Kyren Williams; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Kyren Williams · Handcuff: Ronnie Rivers
community activityADP falling
QBJaxson Dart
NYG · bye 8
TargetSignal
ADP
11.09
QB13
TrueValue
20.6
QB6 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 228
11271% bust5% @1.5x297
market drafts him QB13, his splits rank him QB6
Why
Behind Jameis Winston
community activityADP falling
QBJordan Love
GB · bye 11
Fade
ADP
11.10
QB14
TrueValue
15.7
QB20 · T2 · 15g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 228
11271% bust5% @1.5x297
market drafts him QB14, his splits rank him QB20
Why
Handcuff: Tyrod Taylor
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy; played in the preseason opener a year after a preseason thumb injury cost him camp reps — Packers News/Spectrum News Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
RBZach CharbonnetOUT
SEA · bye 11
ADP
11.10
RB35
TrueValue
11.3
RB26 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
On PUP (ACL) - Week 1 availability unconfirmed
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Sam Darnold (2026-08-07)
Behind George Holani
unconfirmed · camp reportOpened camp on the PUP list rehabbing an ACL - no confirmed Week 1 timeline — SI injury tracker Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
TETravis Kelce
KC · bye 5
Target
ADP
11.11
TE10
TrueValue
12.8
TE6 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE10, his splits rank him TE6
Why
Handcuff: Noah Gray
community activityADP falling
WRCalvin Ridley
TEN · bye 9
Fair
ADP
11.12
WR47
TrueValue
13.9
WR21 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+26
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR47, his splits rank him WR21
Why
New situation: was JAX (2023 baseline), now TEN
New situation: 2026 QB Cam Ward (2026-08-06) — projected off established 13.9 (Trevor Lawrence 2023)
Behind Wan'Dale Robinson · Handcuff: Elic Ayomanor
unconfirmed · camp reportCam Ward (2nd yr, No.1 pick) entrenched at QB1 — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP rising
WRRashod Bateman
BAL · bye 13
FadeSignal
ADP
12.01
WR48
TrueValue
7.9
WR54 · T3 · 24g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR48, his splits rank him WR54
Why
Behind Zay Flowers · Handcuff: Devontez Walker
community activityADP rising
WRKayshon Boutte
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
12.04
WR49
TrueValue
8.9
WR48 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 124
5589% bust5% @1.5x186
market drafts him WR49, his splits rank him WR48
Why
New situation: was NE (2025 baseline), now HOU
Behind Xavier Hutchinson · Handcuff: Jaylin Noel
community activityADP rising
QBBaker Mayfield
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
12.04
QB15
TrueValue
16.0
QB18 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292
market drafts him QB15, his splits rank him QB18
Why
Handcuff: Jalon Daniels
community activityADP falling
RBWoody Marks
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
12.08
RB36
TrueValue
9.2
RB32 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB36, his splits rank him RB32 — depth chart lists him behind David Montgomery; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind David Montgomery · Handcuff: British Brooks
QBKyler MurrayOUT
MIN · bye 6
ADP
12.09
QB16
TrueValue
17.1
QB17 · T2 · 22g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292
Out
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was ARI (2025 baseline), now MIN
Handcuff: Carson Wentz
unconfirmed · camp reportNamed MIN's starter over J.J. McCarthy out of camp; no injury concerns — Star Tribune/Vikings.com Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
WRKeenan Allen
IND · bye 13
Fair
ADP
13.06
WR50
TrueValue
10.8
WR39 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+11
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR50, his splits rank him WR39
Why
New situation: was LAC (2025 baseline), now IND
Behind Josh Downs · Handcuff: Darius Slayton
community activityADP falling
WRCooper Kupp
SEA · bye 11
Fade
ADP
13.11
WR51
TrueValue
7.3
WR55 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR51, his splits rank him WR55
Why
Behind Rashid Shaheed · Handcuff: Tory Horton
community activityADP falling
WRRicky PearsallOUT
SF
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
9.0
WR47 · T3 · 16g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Out for the season (PCL surgery)
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
unconfirmed · camp reportRuled out for all of 2026 - season-ending PCL surgery (6-12 month recovery); do not draft — NFL.com/49ers GM Aug 2026
TET.J. Hockenson
MIN
ADP
—
TE
TrueValue
8.7
TE10 · T4 · 10g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kyler Murray (2026-09-02) — projected off established 8.7 (Sam Darnold 2024)
unconfirmed · camp reportMurray named the Week 1 starter over J.J. McCarthy; the competition is closed — NFL.com/ESPN Aug 2026
WRDrake London
ATL
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
19.7
WR5 · T3 · 9g
Edge
—
vs ADP
WRTyreek HillOUT
FA
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
21.5
WR3 · T2 · 20g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Free agent - unsigned, rehabbing a serious knee injury (no timetable)
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now FA
unconfirmed · camp reportReleased by Miami in Feb 2026 and still UNSIGNED - rehabbing the knee injury from Sep 2025 with no timetable. No team, no role. — NFL.com/PFR Aug 2026
TEGeorge KittleOUT
SF
ADP
—
TE
TrueValue
15.6
TE2 · T2 · 20g
Edge
—
vs ADP
On PUP (torn Achilles Jan 2026) - misses 4+ games if not activated; baseline is pre-injury
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Brock Purdy (2026-08-07)
WRBrandon AiyukMONITOR
SF
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
13.9
WR22 · T3 · 22g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Returning from knee injury - monitor
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Brock Purdy (2026-08-07)
unconfirmed · camp reportStill rehabbing the knee - one of several 49ers pass-catchers not at full health this camp — SI/beat Aug 2026
RBJames ConnerMONITOR
ARI
ADP
—
RB
TrueValue
15.1
RB18 · T2 · 19g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Returning from foot surgery - no 11-on-11 reps yet
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15.1 (Kyler Murray 2025)
unconfirmed · camp reportBuried at RB3 behind Tyler Allgeier and rookie Jeremiyah Love, and still has not taken an 11-on-11 rep while returning from season-ending foot surgery — AZ beat/NBC Aug 2026
RBAlvin Kamara
NO
ADP
—
RB
TrueValue
19.5
RB5 · T2 · 10g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 20.4 (Derek Carr 2024)
unconfirmed · camp reportTravis Etienne signed (4yr ~12M/yr) as the featured back - Kamara (31) is RB2 splitting first-team reps at best; his lead-role baseline no longer reflects his role — ESPN/SI/beat Aug 2026
TEJuwan Johnson
NO
ADP
—
TE
TrueValue
8.0
TE12 · T4 · 12g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 8 (Derek Carr 2023)
unconfirmed · camp reportShough QB1 — Yahoo/beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
QBDaniel JonesMONITOR
IND
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
18.8
QB13 · T2 · 12g
Edge
—
vs ADP
WRTank DellMONITOR
HOU
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
10.0
WR43 · T3 · 14g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Returning from multi-ligament knee surgery - cleared for camp after missing all of 2025; Week 1 unconfirmed
Why
RBJonathon BrooksMONITOR
CAR
ADP
—
RB
TrueValue
2.5
RB39 · T4 · 3g · small
Edge
—
vs ADP
QBBrock Purdy
SF
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
19.7
QB9 · T2 · 9g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
QBCam Ward
TEN
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
11.1
QB25 · T3 · 16g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, throwing well in camp and the preseason opener — Yahoo/AtoZ Sports Aug 2026
QBGeno SmithOUT
NYJ
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
11.6
QB23 · T3 · 15g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Sore ankle (day-to-day) - held out of one preseason game, full practice participant since and expected to start Week 1
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was LV (2025 baseline), now NYJ
QBJacoby Brissett
ARI
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
18.9
QB10 · T2 · 12g
Edge
—
vs ADP
QBJayden Daniels
WAS
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
20.9
QB2 · T2 · 22g
Edge
—
vs ADP
QBKirk Cousins
LV
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
12.5
QB22 · T3 · 8g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: was ATL (2025 baseline), now LV
QBMalik Willis
MIA
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
6.5
QB26 · T4 · 3g · small
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: was GB (2025 baseline), now MIA
QBSam Darnold
SEA
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
13.8
QB21 · T3 · 17g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
Situation-dependent: swings 17.5 PPG across his starter seasons — situation-dependent
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, back for his second year as Seattle's starter — Field Gulls/Seahawks.com Aug 2026
QBTua TagovailoaMONITOR
ATL
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
11.5
QB24 · T3 · 14g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Managing a back injury - sidelined from practice in camp; not considered serious per reporting, expected back on the field soon
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now ATL

Rookies — no NFL games

No NFL games means no real splits, and we will not invent a projection. What we can show honestly is his situation— where he landed, his depth-chart role, what the market is paying, and what players drafted where he was drafted have actually done as rookies. He gets no outcome range either: those are fitted on a field that is ~88% veterans, and rookies at the same ADP land 4–10% below the veteran median, so that range would flatter him in a fixed direction.

RBJeremiyah Love
ARI · bye 14 · ADP 3.03
RB1 on depth chart
2026 QB: Jacoby Brissett
Round 1, pick 3 (ARI)
base rateRBs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 14.6 PPG as rookies, 81% cleared 10 PPG (n=16)
RBJadarian Price
SEA · bye 11 · ADP 6.05
RB1 on depth chart
2026 QB: Sam Darnold
Round 1, pick 32 (SEA)
base rateRBs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 14.6 PPG as rookies, 81% cleared 10 PPG (n=16)
WRCarnell Tate
TEN · bye 9 · ADP 7.03
WR1 on depth chart
2026 QB: Cam Ward
Round 1, pick 4 (TEN)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRMakai Lemon
PHI · bye 10 · ADP 10.06
WR3 on depth chart
Behind Dontayvion Wicks
2026 QB: Jalen Hurts
Round 1, pick 20 (PHI)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRKC Concepcion Jr.
CLE · bye 11 · ADP 10.06
WR2 on depth chart
Behind Denzel Boston
2026 QB: Deshaun Watson
Round 1, pick 24 (CLE)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRDe'Zhaun Stribling
SF · bye 8 · ADP 11.07
WR8 on depth chart
Behind Christian Kirk
2026 QB: Brock Purdy
Round 2, pick 33 (SFO)
base rateWRs drafted in the 2nd round since 2015: median 7.6 PPG as rookies, 28% cleared 10 PPG (n=53)
RBMike Washington Jr.
LV · bye 13 · ADP 12.12
RB2 on depth chart
Behind Ashton Jeanty
2026 QB: Kirk Cousins
Round 4, pick 122 (LVR)
base rateRBs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 3 PPG as rookies, 6% cleared 10 PPG (n=161)

ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (PPR), shown as round.pick for a 12-team league. Data via nflverse. TrueValue is computed from real play-by-play under each player’s current situation — not an AI guess. Not affiliated with the NFL or NFLPA.