TrueSplits

TrueValue vs ADP

Every draftable player, ranked by his go-forward TrueValue — his real splits under his current situation (his most-common QB and durable role, never a fluky injury tail) — against where the market actually drafts him. Target / Fade calls are only made when the underlying gap reads as real signal, not week-to-week noise.

These calls do not claim a rank edge over the market — five backtested approaches lost to consensus ADP. See the full accuracy scoreboard →

Situation facts verified Aug 6, 2026 – Aug 21, 2026 · player data through the 2025 season · ADP updated Aug 25, 2026 (2026 · 12-team) · some situation facts are 19 days old and may have moved

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RBJahmyr Gibbs
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.02
RB1
TrueValue
21.6
RB2 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
8521% bust60% @1.5x426
market drafts him RB1, his splits rank him RB2
Why
Handcuff: Isiah Pacheco
RBBijan Robinson
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.02
RB2
TrueValue
18.7
RB7 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
8521% bust60% @1.5x426
market drafts him RB2, his splits rank him RB7 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 18.7 with Kirk Cousins in 2024; 22.7 with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025 (9g)
Handcuff: Brian Robinson Jr.
unconfirmed · camp reportATL QB1 unresolved by injury, not competition - Penix rehabbing an ACL (weeks from 11-on-11s), Tua slowed by a back issue — ESPN Aug 2026
WRPuka Nacua
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.03
WR1
TrueValue
23.4
WR1 · T1 · 16g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 279
12522% bust51% @1.5x420
market drafts him WR1, his splits rank him WR1
Why
Handcuff: Davante Adams
WRJa'Marr Chase
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.04
WR2
TrueValue
21.8
WR2 · T2 · 24g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 272
12223% bust49% @1.5x410
market drafts him WR2, his splits rank him WR2
Why
Handcuff: Tee Higgins
WRJaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.05
WR3
TrueValue
21.2
WR4 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 261
11725% bust45% @1.5x393
market drafts him WR3, his splits rank him WR4
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Sam Darnold (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Rashid Shaheed
WRAmon-Ra St. Brown
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.06
WR4
TrueValue
19.1
WR6 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 256
11526% bust43% @1.5x386
market drafts him WR4, his splits rank him WR6
Why
Handcuff: Jameson Williams
RBChristian McCaffrey
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
1.07
RB3
TrueValue
24.4
RB1 · T1 · 25g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
8422% bust60% @1.5x423
market drafts him RB3, his splits rank him RB1
Why
Handcuff: Kaelon Black
RBJonathan Taylor
IND · bye 13
FairSignal
ADP
1.08
RB4
TrueValue
20.9
RB3 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
8422% bust60% @1.5x422
market drafts him RB4, his splits rank him RB3
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Daniel Jones (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: DJ Giddens
⚠ 12.9 in 5 games — daniel jones went out (wk 14)
WRDrake London
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
1.10
WR5
TrueValue
19.7
WR5 · T3 · 9g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 256
11526% bust43% @1.5x386
market drafts him WR5, his splits rank him WR5
Why
Handcuff: Jahan Dotson
unconfirmed · camp reportATL QB1 clouded by injuries - Penix (ACL) not yet cleared for 11-on-11s, Tua managing a back issue — ESPN Aug 2026
RBDe'Von Achane
MIA · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.10
RB5
TrueValue
20.8
RB4 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 233
7625% bust53% @1.5x381
market drafts him RB5, his splits rank him RB4
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Malik Willis (2026-08-06) — projected off established 20.8 (Tua Tagovailoa 2025)
Handcuff: Jaylen Wright
unconfirmed · camp reportWillis is QB1 (Tua to ATL) and the receiving room is gutted - Hill released, Waddle to DEN - so volume should funnel to Achane, but in a much weaker offense — ESPN/depth chart Aug 2026
WRCeeDee Lamb
DAL · bye 14
Fade
ADP
1.11
WR6
TrueValue
16.6
WR12 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 254
11427% bust42% @1.5x382
market drafts him WR6, his splits rank him WR12
Why
Handcuff: George Pickens
WRJustin Jefferson
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
1.12
WR7
TrueValue
18.7
WR8 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 250
11227% bust40% @1.5x377
market drafts him WR7, his splits rank him WR8 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 18.7 with Sam Darnold in 2024; 11 with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 (10g)
Handcuff: Jordan Addison
unconfirmed · camp reportMurray is the likely starter but O'Connell still calls it an open competition with J.J. McCarthy — ESPN/CBS Aug 2026
RBJames Cook III
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
2.01
RB6
TrueValue
18.8
RB6 · T2 · 16g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB6, his splits rank him RB6
Why
Handcuff: Ray Davis
RBChase Brown
CIN · bye 6
Fade
ADP
2.01
RB7
TrueValue
16.8
RB12 · T2 · 23g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB7, his splits rank him RB12
Why
Handcuff: Samaje Perine
WRRashee Rice
KC · bye 5
Fair
ADP
2.03
WR8
TrueValue
18.8
WR7 · T3 · 8g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 236
10631% bust33% @1.5x355
market drafts him WR8, his splits rank him WR7
Why
Handcuff: Xavier Worthy
RBAshton Jeanty
LV · bye 13
Fair
ADP
2.03
RB8
TrueValue
15.0
RB19 · T2 · 15g
Edge
-11
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 230
7525% bust53% @1.5x377
market drafts him RB8, his splits rank him RB19
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kirk Cousins (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15 (Geno Smith 2025)
Handcuff: Mike Washington Jr.
unconfirmed · camp reportCousins is the clear Week 1 starter (QB1 reps since day one of camp) — ESPN/PFN Aug 2026
RBDerrick Henry
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
2.06
RB9
TrueValue
15.5
RB13 · T2 · 12g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 212
6929% bust47% @1.5x348
market drafts him RB9, his splits rank him RB13
Why
Handcuff: Justice Hill
WRA.J. Brown
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
2.06
WR9
TrueValue
14.7
WR17 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 222
9935% bust26% @1.5x334
market drafts him WR9, his splits rank him WR17
Why
New situation: was PHI (2025 baseline), now NE
New situation: 2026 QB Drake Maye (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14.7 (Jalen Hurts 2025)
Handcuff: Romeo Doubs
unconfirmed · camp reportTraded PHI to NE - Drake Maye (ascending 2nd yr) is QB1 — NFL.com Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
WRChris Olave
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
2.08
WR10
TrueValue
14.0
WR22 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 219
9836% bust25% @1.5x330
market drafts him WR10, his splits rank him WR22
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14 (Derek Carr 2023)
Handcuff: Jordyn Tyson
unconfirmed · camp reportShough is QB1 in 2026 (Rattler QB2) — Yahoo/beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
RBSaquon Barkley
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
2.08
RB10
TrueValue
14.5
RB22 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 189
6135% bust37% @1.5x309
market drafts him RB10, his splits rank him RB22
Why
Handcuff: Tank Bigsby
WRGeorge Pickens
DAL · bye 14
Fair
ADP
2.09
WR11
TrueValue
18.1
WR10 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 217
9737% bust24% @1.5x328
market drafts him WR11, his splits rank him WR10
Why
Behind CeeDee Lamb · Handcuff: Ryan Flournoy
WRNico Collins
HOU · bye 8
Fade
ADP
2.09
WR12
TrueValue
14.8
WR15 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 217
9737% bust24% @1.5x327
market drafts him WR12, his splits rank him WR15
Why
Handcuff: Xavier Hutchinson
RBKenneth Walker
KC · bye 5
Fair
ADP
2.10
RB11
TrueValue
11.3
RB31 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-20
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 189
6135% bust37% @1.5x309
market drafts him RB11, his splits rank him RB31
Why
New situation: was SEA (2025 baseline), now KC
Handcuff: Emari Demercado
RBOmarion Hampton
LAC · bye 7
Fade
ADP
2.11
RB12
TrueValue
15.1
RB16 · T2 · 9g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 189
6135% bust37% @1.5x309
market drafts him RB12, his splits rank him RB16
Why
Handcuff: Keaton Mitchell
WRGarrett Wilson
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
3.02
WR13
TrueValue
14.8
WR16 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 212
9539% bust22% @1.5x319
market drafts him WR13, his splits rank him WR16
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Geno Smith (2026-08-06) — projected off established 14.8 (Aaron Rodgers 2024)
Handcuff: Adonai Mitchell
unconfirmed · camp reportGeno Smith in (from LV), Fields out - a QB upgrade — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
WRZay Flowers
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
3.02
WR14
TrueValue
14.4
WR19 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 211
9539% bust22% @1.5x318
market drafts him WR14, his splits rank him WR19
Why
Handcuff: Rashod Bateman
WRMalik NabersMONITOR
NYG · bye 8
Fair
ADP
3.03
WR15
TrueValue
17.7
WR11 · T3 · 3g · small
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 210
9439% bust21% @1.5x316
Returning from ACL surgery - on track for Week 1
market drafts him WR15, his splits rank him WR11 — small sample, no strong call
Why
Handcuff: Darius Slayton
unconfirmed · camp reportAvoided the PUP list after ACL/meniscus surgery; practicing and on track for Week 1 - monitor — Beat reports Aug 2026
TETrey McBride
ARI · bye 14
FairSignal
ADP
3.05
TE1
TrueValue
19.6
TE1 · T1 · 12g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 192
9914% bust64% @1.5x285
market drafts him TE1, his splits rank him TE1
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Tip Reiman
WRDeVonta Smith
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
3.06
WR16
TrueValue
12.1
WR38 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-22
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 208
9340% bust21% @1.5x313
market drafts him WR16, his splits rank him WR38
Why
Handcuff: Dontayvion Wicks
RBJosh Jacobs
GB · bye 11
Target
ADP
3.07
RB13
TrueValue
17.8
RB8 · T2 · 13g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB13, his splits rank him RB8
Why
Handcuff: MarShawn Lloyd
RBKyren Williams
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
3.08
RB14
TrueValue
15.5
RB14 · T2 · 17g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB14, his splits rank him RB14
Why
Handcuff: Blake Corum
WRTetairoa McMillan
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
3.08
WR17
TrueValue
12.3
WR34 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-17
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 207
9340% bust20% @1.5x312
market drafts him WR17, his splits rank him WR34
Why
Handcuff: Jalen Coker
QBJosh Allen
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
3.10
QB1
TrueValue
22.8
QB1 · T1 · 16g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 314
15428% bust17% @1.5x409
market drafts him QB1, his splits rank him QB1
Why
Handcuff: Kyle Allen
WREmeka Egbuka
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
3.11
WR18
TrueValue
11.5
WR42 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-24
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 204
9142% bust19% @1.5x307
market drafts him WR18, his splits rank him WR42
Why
Handcuff: Chris Godwin Jr.
RBBreece Hall
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
3.11
RB15
TrueValue
15.1
RB17 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 182
5937% bust34% @1.5x299
market drafts him RB15, his splits rank him RB17
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Geno Smith (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15.1 (Aaron Rodgers 2024)
Handcuff: Braelon Allen
unconfirmed · camp reportGeno Smith starting - Fields to KC — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
TEBrock Bowers
LV · bye 13
Fair
ADP
3.11
TE2
TrueValue
15.2
TE3 · T2 · 11g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 191
9814% bust63% @1.5x283
market drafts him TE2, his splits rank him TE3
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Kirk Cousins (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15.2 (Geno Smith 2025)
Handcuff: Michael Mayer
unconfirmed · camp reportCousins took QB1 reps from day one of camp and is the clear Week 1 starter; rookie Mendoza developing — ESPN/PFN Aug 2026
RBJavonte Williams
DAL · bye 14
Fair
ADP
4.01
RB16
TrueValue
15.2
RB15 · T2 · 16g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 179
5838% bust32% @1.5x293
market drafts him RB16, his splits rank him RB15
Why
Handcuff: Jaydon Blue
WRTee Higgins
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
4.01
WR19
TrueValue
18.5
WR9 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 202
9042% bust18% @1.5x304
market drafts him WR19, his splits rank him WR9 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 18.5 with Joe Burrow in 2024; 16.8 with Joe Flacco in 2025 (6g)
Behind Ja'Marr Chase · Handcuff: Andrei Iosivas
RBCam SkatteboMONITOR
NYG · bye 8
Target
ADP
4.01
RB17
TrueValue
17.4
RB10 · T2 · 5g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 176
5839% bust31% @1.5x289
Returning from ankle surgery - fully cleared, full camp participant
market drafts him RB17, his splits rank him RB10
Why
Handcuff: Najee Harris
WRLadd McConkey
LAC · bye 7
Fade
ADP
4.02
WR20
TrueValue
11.3
WR44 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-24
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 202
9042% bust18% @1.5x304
market drafts him WR20, his splits rank him WR44
Why
Handcuff: Quentin Johnston
RBTravis Etienne Jr.
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
4.03
RB18
TrueValue
14.9
RB21 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 169
5541% bust27% @1.5x277
market drafts him RB18, his splits rank him RB21
Why
New situation: was JAX (2025 baseline), now NO
Handcuff: Alvin Kamara
community activityADP rising
WRDavante Adams
LAR · bye 11
Target
ADP
4.06
WR21
TrueValue
15.9
WR13 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 201
9043% bust18% @1.5x303
market drafts him WR21, his splits rank him WR13
Why
Behind Puka Nacua · Handcuff: Jordan Whittington
WRJameson Williams
DET · bye 6
Fade
ADP
4.08
WR22
TrueValue
12.9
WR29 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 199
8943% bust17% @1.5x300
market drafts him WR22, his splits rank him WR29
Why
Behind Amon-Ra St. Brown · Handcuff: Isaac TeSlaa
RBBucky Irving
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
4.09
RB19
TrueValue
13.8
RB25 · T2 · 10g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 160
5245% bust23% @1.5x263
market drafts him RB19, his splits rank him RB25
Why
Handcuff: Kenny Gainwell
⚠ 11.1 in 6 games — returning (wk 13)
RBD'Andre Swift
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
4.10
RB20
TrueValue
14.3
RB23 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 160
5245% bust23% @1.5x261
market drafts him RB20, his splits rank him RB23
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Kyle Monangai
WRJaylen Waddle
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
4.10
WR23
TrueValue
12.9
WR30 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 196
8845% bust16% @1.5x295
market drafts him WR23, his splits rank him WR30
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now DEN
New situation: 2026 QB Bo Nix (2026-08-06) — projected off established 12.9 (Tua Tagovailoa 2025)
Behind Courtland Sutton · Handcuff: Troy Franklin
unconfirmed · camp reportNo longer in Miami - now Denver's WR2 opposite Courtland Sutton, catching passes from Bo Nix — Depth chart/beat Aug 2026
WRTerry McLaurin
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
4.11
WR24
TrueValue
15.5
WR14 · T3 · 15g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 192
8646% bust14% @1.5x289
market drafts him WR24, his splits rank him WR14 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 15.5 with Jayden Daniels in 2024; 14.3 with Marcus Mariota in 2025 (5g)
Handcuff: Stefon Diggs
WRDJ Moore
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
5.01
WR25
TrueValue
10.1
WR52 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-27
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 186
8349% bust12% @1.5x280
market drafts him WR25, his splits rank him WR52
Why
New situation: was CHI (2025 baseline), now BUF
Handcuff: Khalil Shakir
RBQuinshon Judkins
CLE · bye 11
Fade
ADP
5.02
RB21
TrueValue
11.0
RB33 · T2 · 6g
Edge
-12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB21, his splits rank him RB33
Why
Handcuff: Dylan Sampson
QBDrake Maye
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
5.04
QB2
TrueValue
20.7
QB4 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390
market drafts him QB2, his splits rank him QB4
Why
Handcuff: Tommy DeVito
RBOllie Gordon II
MIA · bye 6
Fair
ADP
5.04
RB22
TrueValue
3.7
RB58 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-36
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB22, his splits rank him RB58 — depth chart lists him behind Jaylen Wright; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Jaylen Wright · Handcuff: Donovan Edwards
RBBhayshul Tuten
JAX · bye 7
Fade
ADP
5.04
RB23
TrueValue
5.9
RB50 · T2 · 15g
Edge
-27
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB23, his splits rank him RB50
Why
Handcuff: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
WRRome Odunze
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
5.05
WR26
TrueValue
12.2
WR35 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR26, his splits rank him WR35
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Luther Burden III
WRMike Evans
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
5.06
WR27
TrueValue
10.6
WR48 · T3 · 8g
Edge
-21
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR27, his splits rank him WR48
Why
New situation: was TB (2025 baseline), now SF
Handcuff: Deebo Samuel
QBLamar Jackson
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
5.09
QB3
TrueValue
17.5
QB17 · T2 · 12g
Edge
-14
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390
market drafts him QB3, his splits rank him QB17
Why
Handcuff: Tyler Huntley
TEColston Loveland
CHI · bye 10
FairSignal
ADP
5.09
TE3
TrueValue
12.9
TE5 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 150
7724% bust40% @1.5x223
market drafts him TE3, his splits rank him TE5
Why
Handcuff: Cole Kmet
QBJoe Burrow
CIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
5.10
QB4
TrueValue
20.8
QB3 · T2 · 24g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390
market drafts him QB4, his splits rank him QB3
Why
Handcuff: Joe Flacco
WRLuther Burden III
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
5.10
WR28
TrueValue
8.5
WR65 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-37
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR28, his splits rank him WR65
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Caleb Williams (2026-08-06)
Behind Rome Odunze · Handcuff: Kalif Raymond
unconfirmed · camp reportSitting WR2 on the Aug depth chart; HC said in July his route tree had taken a step — Bears presser Jul; depth chart Aug 6
RBJaylen Warren
PIT · bye 9
Fair
ADP
5.10
RB24
TrueValue
14.0
RB24 · T2 · 14g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB24, his splits rank him RB24
Why
Handcuff: Rico Dowdle
RBDavid Montgomery
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
5.10
RB25
TrueValue
9.8
RB37 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250
market drafts him RB25, his splits rank him RB37
Why
New situation: was DET (2025 baseline), now HOU
Handcuff: Woody Marks
WRChristian Watson
GB · bye 11
Target
ADP
5.11
WR29
TrueValue
13.3
WR25 · T3 · 8g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR29, his splits rank him WR25
Why
Handcuff: Jayden Reed
WRCourtland Sutton
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
5.12
WR30
TrueValue
12.9
WR31 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258
market drafts him WR30, his splits rank him WR31
Why
Handcuff: Jaylen Waddle
RBTreVeyon Henderson
NE · bye 11
FairSignal
ADP
6.02
RB26
TrueValue
17.1
RB11 · T2 · 9g
Edge
+15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 141
4654% bust13% @1.5x231
market drafts him RB26, his splits rank him RB11 — depth chart lists him behind Rhamondre Stevenson; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Rhamondre Stevenson · Handcuff: Lan Larison
WRDK Metcalf
PIT · bye 9
Fair
ADP
6.05
WR31
TrueValue
12.5
WR32 · T3 · 13g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 167
7560% bust6% @1.5x252
market drafts him WR31, his splits rank him WR32
Why
Handcuff: Michael Pittman Jr.
WRParker Washington
JAX · bye 7
TargetSignal
ADP
6.05
WR32
TrueValue
14.4
WR20 · T3 · 10g
Edge
+12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 167
7560% bust6% @1.5x251
market drafts him WR32, his splits rank him WR20
Why
Behind Brian Thomas Jr. · Handcuff: Jakobi Meyers
TETyler Warren
IND · bye 13
FadeSignal
ADP
6.06
TE4
TrueValue
10.9
TE11 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 148
7625% bust38% @1.5x220
market drafts him TE4, his splits rank him TE11
Why
Handcuff: Mo Alie-Cox
⚠ 6.3 in 5 games — daniel jones went out (wk 14)
QBDak Prescott
DAL · bye 14
Fade
ADP
6.06
QB5
TrueValue
19.6
QB10 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390
market drafts him QB5, his splits rank him QB10
Why
Handcuff: Joe Milton III
WRMarvin Harrison Jr.
ARI · bye 14
Fair
ADP
6.06
WR33
TrueValue
11.6
WR40 · T3 · 17g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 165
7461% bust6% @1.5x249
market drafts him WR33, his splits rank him WR40
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06) — projected off established 11.6 (Kyler Murray 2024)
Handcuff: Michael Wilson
unconfirmed · camp reportKyler Murray traded to MIN - Brissett named starter (a downgrade) — AZ beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
RBRhamondre Stevenson
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
6.06
RB27
TrueValue
12.8
RB27 · T2 · 14g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 134
4457% bust10% @1.5x220
market drafts him RB27, his splits rank him RB27
Why
Handcuff: TreVeyon Henderson
community activityADP rising
WRAlec PierceOUT
IND · bye 13
ADP
6.07
WR34
TrueValue
12.2
WR36 · T3 · 10g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 165
7461% bust5% @1.5x249
On PUP (ankle) - Week 1 in doubt
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
Handcuff: Josh Downs
unconfirmed · camp reportOpened camp on Active/PUP after ankle clean-up; hoped back for Week 1 but the timeline may not cooperate — SI/beat Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
RBTony Pollard
TEN · bye 9
Fade
ADP
6.09
RB28
TrueValue
11.0
RB34 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 134
4457% bust10% @1.5x220
market drafts him RB28, his splits rank him RB34
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Cam Ward (2026-08-06)
Handcuff: Tyjae Spears
QBJayden Daniels
WAS · bye 7
Target
ADP
6.12
QB6
TrueValue
20.9
QB2 · T2 · 22g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB6, his splits rank him QB2
Why
Handcuff: Marcus Mariota
WRBrian Thomas Jr.
JAX · bye 7
Fade
ADP
7.01
WR35
TrueValue
9.9
WR54 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-19
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 163
7362% bust5% @1.5x246
market drafts him WR35, his splits rank him WR54
Why
Handcuff: Parker Washington
RBRico Dowdle
PIT · bye 9
FairSignal
ADP
7.03
RB29
TrueValue
15.0
RB20 · T2 · 13g
Edge
+9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 134
4457% bust10% @1.5x220
market drafts him RB29, his splits rank him RB20 — depth chart lists him behind Jaylen Warren; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was CAR (2025 baseline), now PIT
Behind Jaylen Warren · Handcuff: Kaleb Johnson
WRMichael Pittman Jr.
PIT · bye 9
Fair
ADP
7.03
WR36
TrueValue
11.7
WR39 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 163
7362% bust5% @1.5x246
market drafts him WR36, his splits rank him WR39
Why
New situation: was IND (2025 baseline), now PIT
Behind DK Metcalf · Handcuff: Roman Wilson
TEKyle Pitts Sr.
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
7.04
TE5
TrueValue
8.0
TE19 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-14
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE5, his splits rank him TE19 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 8 with Kirk Cousins in 2024; 9.1 with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025 (9g)
Handcuff: Charlie Woerner
unconfirmed · camp reportATL QB1 clouded by injuries - Penix (ACL) rehabbing, Tua managing a back issue — ESPN Aug 2026
WRMichael Wilson
ARI · bye 14
TargetSignal
ADP
7.04
WR37
TrueValue
14.5
WR18 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+19
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 163
7362% bust5% @1.5x246
market drafts him WR37, his splits rank him WR18
Why
Behind Marvin Harrison Jr. · Handcuff: Kendrick Bourne
QBMatthew Stafford
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
7.05
QB7
TrueValue
20.6
QB5 · T2 · 17g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB7, his splits rank him QB5
Why
Handcuff: Stetson Bennett IV
QBJalen Hurts
PHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
7.07
QB8
TrueValue
18.8
QB12 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB8, his splits rank him QB12
Why
Handcuff: Andy Dalton
TEHarold Fannin Jr.
CLE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
7.07
TE6
TrueValue
12.7
TE7 · T3 · 7g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE6, his splits rank him TE7
Why
Handcuff: Blake Whiteheart
RBChuba Hubbard
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
7.07
RB30
TrueValue
8.3
RB43 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-13
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 128
4262% bust8% @1.5x209
market drafts him RB30, his splits rank him RB43
Why
Handcuff: Jonathon Brooks
⚠ 6.3 in 11 games — returning (wk 7)
WRChris Godwin Jr.
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
7.08
WR38
TrueValue
9.2
WR58 · T3 · 9g
Edge
-20
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 159
7165% bust5% @1.5x240
market drafts him WR38, his splits rank him WR58
Why
Behind Emeka Egbuka · Handcuff: Jalen McMillan
WRWan'Dale Robinson
TEN · bye 9
Fair
ADP
8.02
WR39
TrueValue
13.1
WR27 · T3 · 11g
Edge
+12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR39, his splits rank him WR27
Why
New situation: was NYG (2025 baseline), now TEN
Behind Carnell Tate · Handcuff: Calvin Ridley
WRJosh Downs
IND · bye 13
Fade
ADP
8.02
WR40
TrueValue
8.7
WR63 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-23
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR40, his splits rank him WR63
Why
Behind Alec Pierce · Handcuff: Keenan Allen
community activityADP falling
WRJakobi Meyers
JAX · bye 7
Fair
ADP
8.04
WR41
TrueValue
11.6
WR41 · T3 · 9g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 156
7067% bust5% @1.5x236
market drafts him WR41, his splits rank him WR41
Why
Behind Parker Washington · Handcuff: Travis Hunter
QBBrock Purdy
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
8.04
QB9
TrueValue
19.7
QB9 · T2 · 9g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342
market drafts him QB9, his splits rank him QB9
Why
Handcuff: Mac Jones
RBRJ Harvey
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
8.04
RB31
TrueValue
12.2
RB28 · T2 · 17g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB31, his splits rank him RB28 — depth chart lists him behind J.K. Dobbins; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind J.K. Dobbins · Handcuff: Jonah Coleman
RBJ.K. Dobbins
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
8.05
RB32
TrueValue
11.6
RB30 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB32, his splits rank him RB30
Why
Handcuff: RJ Harvey
community activityADP rising
QBCaleb Williams
CHI · bye 10
Fade
ADP
8.07
QB10
TrueValue
18.8
QB13 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 261
12848% bust5% @1.5x341
market drafts him QB10, his splits rank him QB13
Why
Handcuff: Tyson Bagent
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy through camp; entering Year 2 in Ben Johnson's offense and looking sharper — Chicago Sun-Times Aug 2026
QBTrevor Lawrence
JAX · bye 7
Target
ADP
8.07
QB11
TrueValue
19.9
QB8 · T2 · 17g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
12848% bust5% @1.5x340
market drafts him QB11, his splits rank him QB8
Why
Handcuff: Nick Mullens
WRStefon Diggs
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
8.07
WR42
TrueValue
12.4
WR33 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
6870% bust5% @1.5x230
market drafts him WR42, his splits rank him WR33
Why
New situation: was NE (2025 baseline), now WAS
New situation: 2026 QB Jayden Daniels (2026-08-07) — projected off established 12.4 (Drake Maye 2025)
Behind Terry McLaurin · Handcuff: Luke McCaffrey
RBKenny Gainwell
TB · bye 10
FairSignal
ADP
8.08
RB33
TrueValue
17.8
RB9 · T2 · 8g
Edge
+24
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB33, his splits rank him RB9 — depth chart lists him behind Bucky Irving; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was PIT (2025 baseline), now TB
Behind Bucky Irving · Handcuff: Sean Tucker
WRJayden Reed
GB · bye 11
FairSignal
ADP
8.11
WR43
TrueValue
11.4
WR43 · T3 · 17g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 147
6675% bust5% @1.5x221
market drafts him WR43, his splits rank him WR43
Why
Behind Christian Watson · Handcuff: Matthew Golden
WRQuentin Johnston
LAC · bye 7
Target
ADP
8.12
WR44
TrueValue
13.2
WR26 · T3 · 13g
Edge
+18
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 147
6675% bust5% @1.5x221
market drafts him WR44, his splits rank him WR26
Why
Behind Ladd McConkey · Handcuff: Tre' Harris
WRJordan Addison
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
9.01
WR45
TrueValue
14.2
WR21 · T3 · 15g
Edge
+24
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 147
6675% bust5% @1.5x221
market drafts him WR45, his splits rank him WR21 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 14.2 with Sam Darnold in 2024; 6.3 with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 (8g)
Behind Justin Jefferson · Handcuff: Jauan Jennings
⚠ 6.3 in 8 games — j.j. mccarthy took over (wk 9)
unconfirmed · camp reportMIN QB competition ongoing - Murray favored over J.J. McCarthy — ESPN/CBS Aug 2026
RBJonathon BrooksMONITOR
CAR · bye 5
Fair
ADP
9.02
RB34
TrueValue
2.5
RB61 · T2 · 3g · small
Edge
-27
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
Returning from back-to-back ACL tears - in padded practice, Week 1 expected barring setback
market drafts him RB34, his splits rank him RB61 — depth chart lists him behind Chuba Hubbard; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Chuba Hubbard · Handcuff: Trevor Etienne
community activityADP rising
QBJared Goff
DET · bye 6
Fade
ADP
9.04
QB12
TrueValue
17.5
QB18 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB12, his splits rank him QB18
Why
Handcuff: Joshua Dobbs
TETucker KraftMONITOR
GB · bye 11
Target
ADP
9.04
TE7
TrueValue
14.7
TE4 · T2 · 8g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
Returning from ACL surgery - practicing, Week 1 likely but unconfirmed
market drafts him TE7, his splits rank him TE4
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Jordan Love (2026-08-07)
Handcuff: Luke Musgrave
TEDallas Goedert
PHI · bye 10
Fair
ADP
9.05
TE8
TrueValue
12.3
TE8 · T3 · 15g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE8, his splits rank him TE8
Why
Handcuff: Eli Stowers
community activityADP rising
RBAaron Jones Sr.
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
9.06
RB35
TrueValue
10.4
RB35 · T2 · 9g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB35, his splits rank him RB35
Why
Handcuff: Jordan Mason
unconfirmed · camp reportMIN QB competition ongoing - timeshare with J. Mason — ESPN/CBS Aug 2026
WRKhalil Shakir
BUF · bye 7
Fade
ADP
9.06
WR46
TrueValue
10.4
WR49 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 145
6576% bust5% @1.5x218
market drafts him WR46, his splits rank him WR49
Why
Behind DJ Moore · Handcuff: Keon Coleman
WRKeon Coleman
BUF · bye 7
Fade
ADP
9.06
WR47
TrueValue
8.5
WR66 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-19
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 145
6576% bust5% @1.5x218
market drafts him WR47, his splits rank him WR66
Why
Behind Khalil Shakir · Handcuff: Joshua Palmer
community activityADP falling
QBPatrick MahomesMONITOR
KC · bye 5
Target
ADP
9.07
QB13
TrueValue
20.4
QB7 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
Returning from ACL surgery - cleared for camp, not yet cleared for games; targeting Week 1
market drafts him QB13, his splits rank him QB7
Why
Handcuff: Justin Fields
WRXavier Worthy
KC · bye 5
Fade
ADP
9.10
WR48
TrueValue
8.6
WR64 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-16
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR48, his splits rank him WR64
Why
Behind Rashee Rice · Handcuff: Tyquan Thornton
QBJustin Herbert
LAC · bye 7
Fair
ADP
9.10
QB14
TrueValue
17.9
QB15 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB14, his splits rank him QB15
Why
Handcuff: Trey Lance
WRMatthew Golden
GB · bye 11
Fade
ADP
9.10
WR49
TrueValue
6.0
WR79 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-30
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR49, his splits rank him WR79
Why
Behind Jayden Reed · Handcuff: Savion Williams
TETravis Kelce
KC · bye 5
Target
ADP
9.11
TE9
TrueValue
12.8
TE6 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE9, his splits rank him TE6
Why
Handcuff: Noah Gray
TESam LaPorta
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
9.11
TE10
TrueValue
11.9
TE9 · T3 · 9g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE10, his splits rank him TE9
Why
Handcuff: Brock Wright
community activityADP falling
RBKyle Monangai
CHI · bye 10
Fair
ADP
10.01
RB36
TrueValue
8.6
RB40 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB36, his splits rank him RB40 — depth chart lists him behind D'Andre Swift; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind D'Andre Swift · Handcuff: Roschon Johnson
community activityADP rising
WRDeebo Samuel Sr.
SF · bye 8
Fair
ADP
10.02
WR50
TrueValue
10.9
WR45 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR50, his splits rank him WR45 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 10.9 with Brock Purdy in 2024; 11 with Marcus Mariota in 2025 (8g)
Behind Mike Evans · Handcuff: Christian Kirk
unconfirmed · camp reportTarget share should rise with Pearsall out for the season — NFL.com/beat Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
RBRachaad White
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
10.03
RB37
TrueValue
8.4
RB42 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB37, his splits rank him RB42 — depth chart lists him behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was TB (2025 baseline), now WAS
Behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt · Handcuff: Kaytron Allen
QBBo Nix
DEN · bye 10
Fair
ADP
10.04
QB15
TrueValue
17.9
QB16 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB15, his splits rank him QB16
Why
Handcuff: Jarrett Stidham
WRRomeo Doubs
NE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
10.06
WR51
TrueValue
9.8
WR55 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 144
6576% bust5% @1.5x217
market drafts him WR51, his splits rank him WR55
Why
New situation: was GB (2025 baseline), now NE
Behind A.J. Brown · Handcuff: DeMario Douglas
RBJacory Croskey-Merritt
WAS · bye 7
Fade
ADP
10.08
RB38
TrueValue
7.2
RB45 · T2 · 8g
Edge
-7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB38, his splits rank him RB45
Why
Handcuff: Rachaad White
community activityADP rising
QBJaxson Dart
NYG · bye 8
TargetSignal
ADP
10.08
QB16
TrueValue
20.6
QB6 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336
market drafts him QB16, his splits rank him QB6
Why
Handcuff: Jameis Winston
TEGeorge KittleOUT
SF · bye 8
ADP
10.09
TE11
TrueValue
15.6
TE2 · T2 · 20g
Edge
+9
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
On PUP (torn Achilles Jan 2026) - misses 4+ games if not activated; baseline is pre-injury
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Brock Purdy (2026-08-07)
Handcuff: Jake Tonges
RBJordan Mason
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
10.09
RB39
TrueValue
10.2
RB36 · T2 · 11g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB39, his splits rank him RB36 — depth chart lists him behind Aaron Jones Sr.; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was SF (2024 baseline), now MIN
Situation-dependent: established 10.2 with Brock Purdy in 2024; 6.3 with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 (10g)
Behind Aaron Jones Sr. · Handcuff: Demond Claiborne
unconfirmed · camp reportMIN QB competition ongoing - backfield with Aaron Jones — ESPN/CBS Aug 2026
RBBlake Corum
LAR · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.01
RB40
TrueValue
7.2
RB46 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him RB40, his splits rank him RB46 — depth chart lists him behind Kyren Williams; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Kyren Williams · Handcuff: Ronnie Rivers
WRJalen Coker
CAR · bye 5
Fade
ADP
11.02
WR52
TrueValue
8.4
WR67 · T3 · 10g
Edge
-15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 129
5885% bust5% @1.5x194
market drafts him WR52, his splits rank him WR67
Why
Behind Tetairoa McMillan · Handcuff: Xavier Legette
WRJerry Jeudy
CLE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.06
WR53
TrueValue
8.3
WR68 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-15
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR53, his splits rank him WR68
Why
New situation: was DEN (2023 baseline), now CLE
Situation-dependent: established 8.3 with Russell Wilson in 2023; 6.7 with Shedeur Sanders in 2025 (8g)
Handcuff: KC Concepcion
TEMark Andrews
BAL · bye 13
Fade
ADP
11.08
TE12
TrueValue
8.0
TE20 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE12, his splits rank him TE20
Why
Handcuff: Durham Smythe
WRRashid Shaheed
SEA · bye 11
Fair
ADP
11.09
WR54
TrueValue
10.7
WR47 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR54, his splits rank him WR47
Why
New situation: was NO (2023 baseline), now SEA
Situation-dependent: established 10.7 with Derek Carr in 2023; 5.8 with Sam Darnold in 2025 (9g)
Behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Handcuff: Cooper Kupp
⚠ 5.8 in 9 games — sam darnold took over (wk 10)
QBBaker Mayfield
TB · bye 10
Fade
ADP
11.09
QB17
TrueValue
16.0
QB21 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 228
11271% bust5% @1.5x297
market drafts him QB17, his splits rank him QB21
Why
Handcuff: Jake Browning
RBTyjae Spears
TEN · bye 9
Fair
ADP
11.10
RB41
TrueValue
8.5
RB41 · T2 · 12g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB41, his splits rank him RB41 — depth chart lists him behind Tony Pollard; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Tony Pollard · Handcuff: Nicholas Singleton
WRJayden Higgins
HOU · bye 8
FairSignal
ADP
11.10
WR55
TrueValue
9.3
WR57 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR55, his splits rank him WR57
Why
Behind Daniel Sobkowicz
WRKeenan Allen
IND · bye 13
Fair
ADP
11.12
WR56
TrueValue
10.8
WR46 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR56, his splits rank him WR46
Why
New situation: was LAC (2025 baseline), now IND
Behind Josh Downs · Handcuff: Ashton Dulin
WRTre Tucker
LV · bye 13
Target
ADP
11.12
WR57
TrueValue
10.4
WR50 · T3 · 15g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190
market drafts him WR57, his splits rank him WR50
Why
Handcuff: Jalen Nailor
TEJake Ferguson
DAL · bye 14
Target
ADP
12.01
TE13
TrueValue
11.7
TE10 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE13, his splits rank him TE10
Why
Handcuff: Brevyn Spann-Ford
QBKyler Murray
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
12.01
QB18
TrueValue
17.1
QB19 · T2 · 22g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292
market drafts him QB18, his splits rank him QB19
Why
New situation: was ARI (2025 baseline), now MIN
Handcuff: J.J. McCarthy
unconfirmed · camp reportNamed MIN's starter over J.J. McCarthy out of camp; no injury concerns — Star Tribune/Vikings.com Aug 2026
QBTyler Shough
NO · bye 8
Fade
ADP
12.02
QB19
TrueValue
15.8
QB22 · T2 · 10g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292
market drafts him QB19, his splits rank him QB22
Why
Handcuff: Spencer Rattler
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, entrenched as Saints' Week 1 starter (Rattler QB2) — Yahoo/Saints.com Aug 2026
RBZach CharbonnetOUT
SEA · bye 11
ADP
12.02
RB42
TrueValue
11.3
RB32 · T2 · 16g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
On PUP (ACL) - Week 1 availability unconfirmed
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Sam Darnold (2026-08-07)
Handcuff: Jadarian Price
unconfirmed · camp reportOpened camp on the PUP list rehabbing an ACL - no confirmed Week 1 timeline — SI injury tracker Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
WRJalen McMillan
TB · bye 10
Fair
ADP
12.04
WR58
TrueValue
9.7
WR56 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 124
5688% bust5% @1.5x187
market drafts him WR58, his splits rank him WR56
Why
Behind Chris Godwin Jr. · Handcuff: Ted Hurst III
TEDavid Njoku
LAC · bye 7
Fair
ADP
12.04
TE14
TrueValue
7.0
TE24 · T3 · 4g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE14, his splits rank him TE24
Why
New situation: was CLE (2025 baseline), now LAC
Behind Charlie Kolar · Handcuff: Oronde Gadsden
TEIsaiah Likely
NYG · bye 8
FairSignal
ADP
12.05
TE15
TrueValue
6.9
TE25 · T3 · 22g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE15, his splits rank him TE25
Why
New situation: was BAL (2025 baseline), now NYG
Handcuff: Theo Johnson
RBWoody Marks
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
12.09
RB43
TrueValue
9.2
RB39 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB43, his splits rank him RB39 — depth chart lists him behind David Montgomery; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind David Montgomery · Handcuff: Jawhar Jordan
community activityADP rising
QBSam Darnold
SEA · bye 11
Fair
ADP
12.10
QB20
TrueValue
13.8
QB25 · T2 · 17g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292
market drafts him QB20, his splits rank him QB25 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: swings 17.5 PPG across his starter seasons — situation-dependent
Handcuff: Drew Lock
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, back for his second year as Seattle's starter — Field Gulls/Seahawks.com Aug 2026
WRCalvin Ridley
TEN · bye 9
Fair
ADP
12.11
WR59
TrueValue
13.9
WR23 · T3 · 16g
Edge
+36
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR59, his splits rank him WR23
Why
New situation: was JAX (2023 baseline), now TEN
New situation: 2026 QB Cam Ward (2026-08-06) — projected off established 13.9 (Trevor Lawrence 2023)
Behind Wan'Dale Robinson · Handcuff: Chimere Dike
unconfirmed · camp reportCam Ward (2nd yr, No.1 pick) entrenched at QB1 — Team reports Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
TEJuwan Johnson
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
12.12
TE16
TrueValue
8.0
TE21 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196
market drafts him TE16, his splits rank him TE21
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 8 (Derek Carr 2023)
Handcuff: Noah Fant
unconfirmed · camp reportShough QB1 — Yahoo/beat Jul; QB1 re-verified vs Aug 6 depth chart
community activityADP falling
RBAlvin Kamara
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
13.01
RB44
TrueValue
19.5
RB5 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+39
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB44, his splits rank him RB5 — depth chart lists him behind Travis Etienne Jr.; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Tyler Shough (2026-08-06) — projected off established 20.4 (Derek Carr 2024)
Behind Travis Etienne Jr. · Handcuff: Kendre Miller
unconfirmed · camp reportTravis Etienne signed (4yr ~12M/yr) as the featured back - Kamara (31) is RB2 splitting first-team reps at best; his lead-role baseline no longer reflects his role — ESPN/SI/beat Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
QBJordan Love
GB · bye 11
Fair
ADP
13.03
QB21
TrueValue
16.5
QB20 · T2 · 14g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 220
10877% bust5% @1.5x288
market drafts him QB21, his splits rank him QB20
Why
Handcuff: Tyrod Taylor
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy; played in the preseason opener a year after a preseason thumb injury cost him camp reps — Packers News/Spectrum News Aug 2026
RBEmari Demercado
KC · bye 5
Fair
ADP
13.03
RB45
TrueValue
5.0
RB51 · T2 · 8g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB45, his splits rank him RB51 — depth chart lists him behind Kenneth Walker III; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was ARI (2025 baseline), now KC
Behind Kenneth Walker III · Handcuff: Emmett Johnson
community activityADP falling
WRJauan Jennings
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
13.04
WR60
TrueValue
13.0
WR28 · T3 · 22g
Edge
+32
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR60, his splits rank him WR28
Why
New situation: was SF (2025 baseline), now MIN
Behind Jordan Addison · Handcuff: Tai Felton
WRMalik Washington
MIA · bye 6
Fade
ADP
13.05
WR61
TrueValue
6.7
WR75 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-14
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR61, his splits rank him WR75
Why
Handcuff: Jalen Tolbert
TEDalton Kincaid
BUF · bye 7
Target
ADP
13.05
TE17
TrueValue
10.8
TE12 · T3 · 11g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 124
6439% bust20% @1.5x184
market drafts him TE17, his splits rank him TE12
Why
Handcuff: Dawson Knox
QBWill Levis
TEN · bye 9
Fade
ADP
13.06
QB22
TrueValue
12.5
QB27 · T2 · 10g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 217
10678% bust5% @1.5x283
market drafts him QB22, his splits rank him QB27
Why
Behind Mitchell Trubisky · Handcuff: Hendon Hooker
WRCooper Kupp
SEA · bye 11
Fade
ADP
13.07
WR62
TrueValue
7.3
WR72 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR62, his splits rank him WR72
Why
Behind Rashid Shaheed · Handcuff: Tory Horton
WRRashod Bateman
BAL · bye 13
FadeSignal
ADP
13.08
WR63
TrueValue
7.9
WR69 · T3 · 24g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR63, his splits rank him WR69
Why
Behind Zay Flowers · Handcuff: Ja'Kobi Lane
RBKimani Vidal
LAC · bye 7
Fair
ADP
13.09
RB46
TrueValue
9.7
RB38 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB46, his splits rank him RB38 — depth chart lists him behind Keaton Mitchell; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Keaton Mitchell · Handcuff: Jaret Patterson
community activityADP rising
TEOronde Gadsden
LAC · bye 7
Fair
ADP
13.09
TE18
TrueValue
9.1
TE16 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167
market drafts him TE18, his splits rank him TE16
Why
Behind David Njoku · Handcuff: Johnny Pascuzzi
community activityADP falling
RBTyler Allgeier
ARI · bye 14
Fair
ADP
13.09
RB47
TrueValue
6.5
RB48 · T2 · 14g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB47, his splits rank him RB48 — depth chart lists him behind Jeremiyah Love; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was ATL (2024 baseline), now ARI
Situation-dependent: established 6.5 with Kirk Cousins in 2024; 7.8 with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025 (9g)
Behind Jeremiyah Love · Handcuff: James Conner
community activityADP rising
TEHunter Henry
NE · bye 11
Target
ADP
13.09
TE19
TrueValue
10.5
TE13 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167
market drafts him TE19, his splits rank him TE13
Why
Handcuff: Eli Raridon
community activityADP rising
RBIsiah Pacheco
DET · bye 6
Fair
ADP
13.10
RB48
TrueValue
6.4
RB49 · T2 · 11g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB48, his splits rank him RB49 — depth chart lists him behind Jahmyr Gibbs; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was KC (2025 baseline), now DET
Behind Jahmyr Gibbs · Handcuff: Sione Vaki
RBMarShawn Lloyd
GB · bye 11
Fair
ADP
13.11
RB49
TrueValue
2.8
RB59 · T2 · 1g · small
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB49, his splits rank him RB59 — depth chart lists him behind Josh Jacobs; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Josh Jacobs · Handcuff: Chris Brooks
community activityADP rising
RBTyrone Tracy Jr.
NYG · bye 8
FairSignal
ADP
13.11
RB50
TrueValue
12.9
RB26 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+24
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB50, his splits rank him RB26 — depth chart lists him behind Najee Harris; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Najee Harris · Handcuff: Devin Singletary
WRJalen Nailor
LV · bye 13
Fair
ADP
13.11
WR64
TrueValue
7.0
WR74 · T3 · 15g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR64, his splits rank him WR74
Why
New situation: was MIN (2024 baseline), now LV
Situation-dependent: established 7 with Sam Darnold in 2024; 7.2 with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 (10g)
Behind Tre Tucker · Handcuff: Jack Bech
TEChig Okonkwo
WAS · bye 7
Fair
ADP
13.12
TE20
TrueValue
7.6
TE23 · T3 · 16g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167
market drafts him TE20, his splits rank him TE23
Why
New situation: was TEN (2025 baseline), now WAS
Handcuff: John Bates
community activityADP falling
WRTank DellMONITOR
HOU · bye 8
Target
ADP
14.01
WR65
TrueValue
10.0
WR53 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
Returning from multi-ligament knee surgery - cleared for camp after missing all of 2025; Week 1 unconfirmed
market drafts him WR65, his splits rank him WR53
Why
Behind Kayshon Boutte · Handcuff: Justin Watson
WRPat Bryant
DEN · bye 10
FadeSignal
ADP
14.01
WR66
TrueValue
7.4
WR70 · T3 · 9g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168
market drafts him WR66, his splits rank him WR70
Why
Behind Marvin Mims Jr. · Handcuff: Lil'Jordan Humphrey
community activityADP falling
TEAJ Barner
SEA · bye 11
Target
ADP
14.01
TE21
TrueValue
8.7
TE17 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167
market drafts him TE21, his splits rank him TE17
Why
Handcuff: Elijah Arroyo
RBChris Rodriguez Jr.
JAX · bye 7
Fair
ADP
14.01
RB51
TrueValue
4.2
RB55 · T2 · 9g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB51, his splits rank him RB55 — depth chart lists him behind Bhayshul Tuten; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was WAS (2023 baseline), now JAX
Situation-dependent: established 4.2 with Sam Howell in 2023; 7.3 with Marcus Mariota in 2025 (7g)
Behind Bhayshul Tuten · Handcuff: LeQuint Allen Jr.
community activityADP falling
RBDylan Sampson
CLE · bye 11
Fair
ADP
14.02
RB52
TrueValue
6.7
RB47 · T2 · 6g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB52, his splits rank him RB47 — depth chart lists him behind Quinshon Judkins; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Quinshon Judkins · Handcuff: Raheim Sanders
RBKeaton Mitchell
LAC · bye 7
Fair
ADP
14.02
RB53
TrueValue
4.8
RB54 · T2 · 8g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB53, his splits rank him RB54 — depth chart lists him behind Omarion Hampton; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was BAL (2025 baseline), now LAC
Behind Omarion Hampton · Handcuff: Kimani Vidal
community activityADP rising
QBC.J. Stroud
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
14.02
QB23
TrueValue
15.7
QB23 · T2 · 13g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB23, his splits rank him QB23
Why
Handcuff: Davis Mills
RBBraelon Allen
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
14.03
RB54
TrueValue
5.0
RB52 · T2 · 17g
Edge
+2
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB54, his splits rank him RB52 — depth chart lists him behind Breece Hall; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Situation-dependent: established 5 with Aaron Rodgers in 2024; 2.9 with Justin Fields in 2025 (3g)
Behind Breece Hall · Handcuff: Isaiah Davis
community activityADP falling
RBTank Bigsby
PHI · bye 10
Fair
ADP
14.04
RB55
TrueValue
2.7
RB60 · T2 · 13g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151
market drafts him RB55, his splits rank him RB60 — depth chart lists him behind Saquon Barkley; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Saquon Barkley · Handcuff: Will Shipley
community activityADP falling
WRRyan Flournoy
DAL · bye 14
Fade
ADP
14.04
WR67
TrueValue
7.3
WR73 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 110
4994% bust5% @1.5x166
market drafts him WR67, his splits rank him WR73
Why
Behind George Pickens · Handcuff: KaVontae Turpin
TETerrance Ferguson
LAR · bye 11
Fade
ADP
14.04
TE22
TrueValue
4.7
TE27 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167
market drafts him TE22, his splits rank him TE27
Why
Behind Tyler Higbee · Handcuff: Max Klare
community activityADP rising
RBRay Davis
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
14.04
RB56
TrueValue
2.4
RB62 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 90
2990% bust5% @1.5x148
market drafts him RB56, his splits rank him RB62 — depth chart lists him behind James Cook III; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind James Cook III · Handcuff: Ty Johnson
community activityADP falling
QBDaniel JonesMONITOR
IND · bye 13
Target
ADP
14.05
QB24
TrueValue
18.8
QB14 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
Returning from Achilles surgery - full-go for camp under 8 months post-op, Week 1 expected
market drafts him QB24, his splits rank him QB14
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Daniel Jones (2026-08-15)
Handcuff: Riley Leonard
RBMalik Davis
DAL · bye 14
Fair
ADP
14.05
RB57
TrueValue
4.1
RB56 · T2 · 10g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 88
2991% bust5% @1.5x144
market drafts him RB57, his splits rank him RB56 — depth chart lists him behind Phil Mafah; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Phil Mafah · Handcuff: Israel Abanikanda
community activityADP falling
QBBryce Young
CAR · bye 5
Fair
ADP
14.06
QB25
TrueValue
13.6
QB26 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB25, his splits rank him QB26
Why
Handcuff: Kenny Pickett
community activityADP rising
TEBrenton Strange
JAX · bye 7
Target
ADP
14.07
TE23
TrueValue
9.8
TE15 · T3 · 12g
Edge
+8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 107
5553% bust8% @1.5x159
market drafts him TE23, his splits rank him TE15
Why
Handcuff: Nate Boerkircher
community activityADP rising
WRDevaughn Vele
NO · bye 8
TargetSignal
ADP
14.07
WR68
TrueValue
12.2
WR37 · T3 · 4g
Edge
+31
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 99
4495% bust5% @1.5x149
market drafts him WR68, his splits rank him WR37
Why
Behind Jordyn Tyson · Handcuff: Bryce Lance
community activityADP rising
WRJaylin Noel
HOU · bye 8
Fade
ADP
14.07
WR69
TrueValue
4.1
WR82 · T3 · 13g
Edge
-13
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 98
4495% bust5% @1.5x148
market drafts him WR69, his splits rank him WR82
Why
Behind Xavier Hutchinson · Handcuff: Kayshon Boutte
WRIsaac TeSlaa
DET · bye 6
TargetSignal
ADP
14.07
WR70
TrueValue
8.9
WR60 · T3 · 6g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 98
4495% bust5% @1.5x148
market drafts him WR70, his splits rank him WR60
Why
Behind Jameson Williams · Handcuff: Greg Dortch
community activityADP rising
QBMalik Willis
MIA · bye 6
Fair
ADP
14.07
QB26
TrueValue
3.2
QB32 · T3 · 2g · small
Edge
-6
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB26, his splits rank him QB32
Why
New situation: was GB (2025 baseline), now MIA
Handcuff: Quinn Ewers
TEDalton Schultz
HOU · bye 8
Target
ADP
14.07
TE24
TrueValue
10.4
TE14 · T3 · 13g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 106
5454% bust7% @1.5x157
market drafts him TE24, his splits rank him TE14
Why
Handcuff: Foster Moreau
community activityADP falling
WRAdonai Mitchell
NYJ · bye 13
Fair
ADP
14.07
WR71
TrueValue
4.5
WR81 · T3 · 8g
Edge
-10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
4195% bust5% @1.5x138
market drafts him WR71, his splits rank him WR81
Why
New situation: was IND (2025 baseline), now NYJ
Behind Garrett Wilson · Handcuff: Omar Cooper Jr.
community activityADP falling
RBNajee Harris
NYG · bye 8
Fair
ADP
14.08
RB58
TrueValue
3.9
RB57 · T2 · 3g · small
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 82
2794% bust5% @1.5x134
market drafts him RB58, his splits rank him RB57 — depth chart lists him behind Cam Skattebo; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was LAC (2025 baseline), now NYG
Behind Cam Skattebo · Handcuff: Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RBBrian Robinson
ATL · bye 11
Fair
ADP
14.08
RB59
TrueValue
12.0
RB29 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+30
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 81
2695% bust5% @1.5x132
market drafts him RB59, his splits rank him RB29 — depth chart lists him behind Bijan Robinson; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: was WAS (2024 baseline), now ATL
Situation-dependent: established 12 with Jayden Daniels in 2024; 2.9 with Brock Purdy in 2025 (9g)
Behind Bijan Robinson · Handcuff: Tyler Goodson
WRKayshon Boutte
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
14.11
WR72
TrueValue
8.9
WR61 · T3 · 14g
Edge
+11
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR72, his splits rank him WR61
Why
New situation: was NE (2025 baseline), now HOU
Behind Jaylin Noel · Handcuff: Tank Dell
community activityADP rising
WRDontayvion Wicks
PHI · bye 10
Fair
ADP
14.11
WR73
TrueValue
6.4
WR77 · T3 · 11g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR73, his splits rank him WR77
Why
New situation: was GB (2025 baseline), now PHI
Behind DeVonta Smith · Handcuff: Makai Lemon
TET.J. Hockenson
MIN · bye 6
Fair
ADP
14.11
TE25
TrueValue
8.7
TE18 · T3 · 10g
Edge
+7
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 91
4771% bust5% @1.5x135
market drafts him TE25, his splits rank him TE18 — volatile / situation-dependent, no confident call
Why
Situation-dependent: established 8.7 with Sam Darnold in 2024; 5.8 with J.J. McCarthy in 2025 (9g)
Handcuff: Josh Oliver
unconfirmed · camp reportMIN QB competition ongoing (Murray favored, McCarthy pushing) — ESPN/CBS Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
RBJaydon Blue
DAL · bye 14
Fair
ADP
14.12
RB60
TrueValue
2.0
RB63 · T2 · 4g
Edge
-3
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 72
2395% bust5% @1.5x117
market drafts him RB60, his splits rank him RB63 — depth chart lists him behind Javonte Williams; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Javonte Williams · Handcuff: Phil Mafah
community activityADP rising
WRBub Means
NO · bye 8
Fair
ADP
14.12
WR74
TrueValue
8.9
WR62 · T3 · 3g · small
Edge
+12
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR74, his splits rank him WR62 — small sample, no strong call
Why
Behind Trey Palmer · Handcuff: Kevin Austin Jr.
WRTre' Harris
LAC · bye 7
FadeSignal
ADP
14.12
WR75
TrueValue
5.2
WR80 · T3 · 12g
Edge
-5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR75, his splits rank him WR80
Why
Behind Quentin Johnston · Handcuff: Brenen Thompson
community activityADP rising
QBCam Ward
TEN · bye 9
Fade
ADP
14.12
QB27
TrueValue
11.1
QB31 · T2 · 16g
Edge
-4
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB27, his splits rank him QB31
Why
Handcuff: Mitchell Trubisky
unconfirmed · camp reportHealthy, throwing well in camp and the preseason opener — Yahoo/AtoZ Sports Aug 2026
community activityADP rising
RBJustice Hill
BAL · bye 13
Fair
ADP
14.12
RB61
TrueValue
8.2
RB44 · T2 · 22g
Edge
+17
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 70
2395% bust5% @1.5x114
market drafts him RB61, his splits rank him RB44 — depth chart lists him behind Derrick Henry; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Derrick Henry · Handcuff: Rasheen Ali
community activityADP rising
QBJacoby Brissett
ARI · bye 14
Target
ADP
15.01
QB28
TrueValue
18.9
QB11 · T2 · 12g
Edge
+17
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB28, his splits rank him QB11
Why
Handcuff: Gardner Minshew II
RBJames ConnerMONITOR
ARI · bye 14
Fair
ADP
15.01
RB62
TrueValue
15.1
RB18 · T2 · 19g
Edge
+44
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 68
2295% bust5% @1.5x111
Returning from foot surgery - no 11-on-11 reps yet
market drafts him RB62, his splits rank him RB18 — depth chart lists him behind Tyler Allgeier; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
New situation: 2026 QB Jacoby Brissett (2026-08-06) — projected off established 15.1 (Kyler Murray 2025)
Behind Tyler Allgeier · Handcuff: Bam Knight
unconfirmed · camp reportBuried at RB3 behind Tyler Allgeier and rookie Jeremiyah Love, and still has not taken an 11-on-11 rep while returning from season-ending foot surgery — AZ beat/NBC Aug 2026
community activityADP falling
QBAaron Rodgers
PIT · bye 9
Target
ADP
15.01
QB29
TrueValue
14.5
QB24 · T2 · 15g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
market drafts him QB29, his splits rank him QB24
Why
Handcuff: Mason Rudolph
WRXavier Hutchinson
HOU · bye 8
Fair
ADP
15.05
WR76
TrueValue
6.5
WR76 · T3 · 13g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR76, his splits rank him WR76
Why
Behind Nico Collins · Handcuff: Jaylin Noel
community activityADP falling
WRXavier Legette
CAR · bye 5
Fair
ADP
15.09
WR77
TrueValue
6.1
WR78 · T3 · 14g
Edge
-1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR77, his splits rank him WR78
Why
Behind Jalen Coker · Handcuff: Jimmy Horn Jr.
WRTroy Franklin
DEN · bye 10
Target
ADP
15.09
WR78
TrueValue
10.4
WR51 · T3 · 17g
Edge
+27
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR78, his splits rank him WR51
Why
Behind Jaylen Waddle · Handcuff: Marvin Mims Jr.
community activityADP falling
WRDarius Slayton
NYG · bye 8
Target
ADP
15.11
WR79
TrueValue
7.4
WR71 · T3 · 10g
Edge
+8
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 83
3795% bust5% @1.5x125
market drafts him WR79, his splits rank him WR71
Why
Behind Malik Nabers · Handcuff: Calvin Austin III
community activityADP rising
RBTy Johnson
BUF · bye 7
Fair
ADP
15.11
RB63
TrueValue
5.0
RB53 · T2 · 16g
Edge
+10
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 55
1895% bust5% @1.5x90
market drafts him RB63, his splits rank him RB53 — depth chart lists him behind Ray Davis; his baseline may be from a bigger role than he now has
Why
Behind Ray Davis · Handcuff: Frank Gore Jr.
community activityADP rising
QBGeno SmithOUT
NYJ · bye 13
ADP
15.12
QB30
TrueValue
11.6
QB29 · T2 · 15g
Edge
+1
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267
Sore ankle (day-to-day) - held out of one preseason game, full practice participant since and expected to start Week 1
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was LV (2025 baseline), now NYJ
Handcuff: Cade Klubnik
TEGreg Dulcich
MIA · bye 6
Fair
ADP
16.03
TE26
TrueValue
5.8
TE26 · T3 · 6g
Edge
0
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 85
4478% bust5% @1.5x126
market drafts him TE26, his splits rank him TE26
Why
Handcuff: Will Kacmarek
TEPat Freiermuth
PIT · bye 9
Target
ADP
16.05
TE27
TrueValue
7.7
TE22 · T3 · 13g
Edge
+5
vs ADP
Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 85
4478% bust5% @1.5x126
market drafts him TE27, his splits rank him TE22
Why
Handcuff: Darnell Washington
community activityADP falling
WRRicky PearsallOUT
SF
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
9.0
WR59 · T3 · 16g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Out for the season (PCL surgery)
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
unconfirmed · camp reportRuled out for all of 2026 - season-ending PCL surgery (6-12 month recovery); do not draft — NFL.com/49ers GM Aug 2026
WRTyreek HillOUT
FA
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
21.5
WR3 · T2 · 20g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Free agent - unsigned, rehabbing a serious knee injury (no timetable)
not expected to play — no call while his availability is in doubt
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now FA
unconfirmed · camp reportReleased by Miami in Feb 2026 and still UNSIGNED - rehabbing the knee injury from Sep 2025 with no timetable. No team, no role. — NFL.com/PFR Aug 2026
WRBrandon AiyukMONITOR
SF
ADP
—
WR
TrueValue
13.9
WR24 · T3 · 22g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Returning from knee injury - monitor
Why
2026 QB confirmed: Brock Purdy (2026-08-07)
unconfirmed · camp reportStill rehabbing the knee - one of several 49ers pass-catchers not at full health this camp — SI/beat Aug 2026
QBKirk Cousins
LV
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
12.5
QB28 · T2 · 8g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Why
New situation: was ATL (2025 baseline), now LV
QBTua TagovailoaMONITOR
ATL
ADP
—
QB
TrueValue
11.5
QB30 · T2 · 14g
Edge
—
vs ADP
Managing a back injury - sidelined from practice in camp; not considered serious per reporting, expected back on the field soon
Why
New situation: was MIA (2025 baseline), now ATL

Rookies — no NFL games

No NFL games means no real splits, and we will not invent a projection. What we can show honestly is his situation— where he landed, his depth-chart role, what the market is paying, and what players drafted where he was drafted have actually done as rookies. He gets no outcome range either: those are fitted on a field that is ~88% veterans, and rookies at the same ADP land 4–10% below the veteran median, so that range would flatter him in a fixed direction.

RBJeremiyah Love
ARI · bye 14 · ADP 3.04
Round 1, pick 3 (ARI)
base rateRBs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 14.6 PPG as rookies, 81% cleared 10 PPG (n=16)
RBJadarian Price
SEA · bye 11 · ADP 7.05
Round 1, pick 32 (SEA)
base rateRBs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 14.6 PPG as rookies, 81% cleared 10 PPG (n=16)
WRCarnell Tate
TEN · bye 9 · ADP 7.05
Round 1, pick 4 (TEN)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRMakai Lemon
PHI · bye 10 · ADP 10.08
Round 1, pick 20 (PHI)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRKC Concepcion
CLE · bye 11 · ADP 11.01
Round 1, pick 24 (CLE)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRDe'Zhaun Stribling
SF · bye 8 · ADP 12.04
Round 2, pick 33 (SFO)
base rateWRs drafted in the 2nd round since 2015: median 7.6 PPG as rookies, 28% cleared 10 PPG (n=53)
WRDenzel Boston
CLE · bye 11 · ADP 12.07
Round 2, pick 39 (CLE)
base rateWRs drafted in the 2nd round since 2015: median 7.6 PPG as rookies, 28% cleared 10 PPG (n=53)
RBJordan James
SF · bye 8 · ADP 12.07
WRJordyn Tyson
NO · bye 8 · ADP 12.08
Round 1, pick 8 (NOR)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
RBMike Washington Jr.
LV · bye 13 · ADP 13.04
Round 4, pick 122 (LVR)
base rateRBs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 3 PPG as rookies, 6% cleared 10 PPG (n=161)
WRCyrus Allen
KC · bye 5 · ADP 13.06
Round 5, pick 176 (KAN)
base rateWRs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 1.4 PPG as rookies, 3% cleared 10 PPG (n=203)
RBJonah Coleman
DEN · bye 10 · ADP 13.09
Round 4, pick 108 (DEN)
base rateRBs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 3 PPG as rookies, 6% cleared 10 PPG (n=161)
WRMalachi Fields
NYG · bye 8 · ADP 14.01
Round 3, pick 74 (NYG)
base rateWRs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015: median 3.8 PPG as rookies, 12% cleared 10 PPG (n=50)
WRJa'Kobi Lane
BAL · bye 13 · ADP 14.01
Round 3, pick 80 (BAL)
base rateWRs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015: median 3.8 PPG as rookies, 12% cleared 10 PPG (n=50)
TEKenyon SadiqOUT
NYJ · bye 13 · ADP 14.04
Round 1, pick 16 (NYJ)
base rateTEs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.4 PPG as rookies, 64% cleared 7 PPG (n=11)
WRAntonio Williams
WAS · bye 7 · ADP 14.05
Round 3, pick 71 (WAS)
base rateWRs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015: median 3.8 PPG as rookies, 12% cleared 10 PPG (n=50)
RBEmmett Johnson
KC · bye 5 · ADP 14.07
Round 5, pick 161 (KAN)
base rateRBs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 3 PPG as rookies, 6% cleared 10 PPG (n=161)
RBKaelon Black
SF · bye 8 · ADP 14.07
Round 3, pick 90 (SFO)
base rateRBs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015: median 6.3 PPG as rookies, 28% cleared 10 PPG (n=32)
QBFernando Mendoza
LV · bye 13 · ADP 14.08
Round 1, pick 1 (LVR)
base rateQBs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 13.2 PPG as rookies, 38% cleared 15 PPG (n=37)
WROmar Cooper Jr.
NYJ · bye 13 · ADP 14.10
Round 1, pick 30 (NYJ)
base rateWRs drafted in the 1st round since 2015: median 9.3 PPG as rookies, 43% cleared 10 PPG (n=49)
WRGermie Bernard
PIT · bye 9 · ADP 14.12
Round 2, pick 47 (PIT)
base rateWRs drafted in the 2nd round since 2015: median 7.6 PPG as rookies, 28% cleared 10 PPG (n=53)
WRTravis Hunter
JAX · bye 7 · ADP 15.01
WRKaden Wetjen
PIT · bye 9 · ADP 15.04
Round 4, pick 121 (PIT)
base rateWRs drafted in the rounds 4-7 since 2015: median 1.4 PPG as rookies, 3% cleared 10 PPG (n=203)
WRCaleb Douglas
MIA · bye 6 · ADP 15.05
Round 3, pick 75 (MIA)
base rateWRs drafted in the 3rd round since 2015: median 3.8 PPG as rookies, 12% cleared 10 PPG (n=50)

ADP via Fantasy Football Calculator (PPR), shown as round.pick for a 12-team league. Data via nflverse. TrueValue is computed from real play-by-play under each player’s current situation — not an AI guess. Not affiliated with the NFL or NFLPA.