TrueSplits

Alvin Kamara

RB · NO · on the draft board

community activityADP falling
market valueRB52· 121 value· tier 43· ▼ down 205 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
9.2PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (9.2) · 11 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

9.2
Avg PPG (split)
9.5
Median week
16
Ceiling
0.7
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 6%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
17%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 20 chances
-1.9%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (NO)
10%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (NO)
-0.73
Rush yds over exp / att
efficiency vs his blocking
11%
Stacked boxes
carries vs 8+ defenders

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 11 games, Alvin Kamara averaged 9.2 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 92
3088% bust5% @1.5x151

Expect about 92 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 30 and 151, with a 88% chance of finishing below replacement (148).

Game log

11 games · 9.2 PPG avg
WkOppRush ydTDRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1ARIL451212079%Rattlersoft13.7
2SFL990621086%Rattlersoft16.0
3@SEAL420114074%Rattlertough6.6
4@BUFL70042073%Rattlersoft11.2
5NYGW270428056%Rattlersoft9.5
6NEL310545062%Rattlertough12.6
7@CHIL28031084%Rattlersoft5.9
8TBL210224051%Shoughmid6.5
9@LAL14013059%Shoughmid0.7
10@CARW830332063%Shoughsoft14.5
12ATLL11024014%!Shoughmid3.5

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Rush yards over expected / att — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 10

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.7 (-0.4-1.1). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — NOvs RB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
@TB
Wk 16
ARI
Wk 17
@ATL
Full season
Wk 1
@DET
Wk 2
@BAL
Wk 3
LV
Wk 4
ATL
Wk 5
MIN
Wk 6
@NYG
Wk 7
PIT
Wk 9
CLE
Wk 10
CAR
Wk 11
@CHI
Wk 12
@CIN
Wk 13
GB
Wk 14
@CAR
Wk 15
@TB
Wk 16
ARI
Wk 17
@ATL
Wk 18
TB

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.