TrueSplits

Lamar Jackson

QB · BAL · on the draft board

market valueQB2· 4,634 value· tier 17· ▲ up 294 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
16.5PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (16.5) · 13 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

16.5
Avg PPG (split)
16.6
Median week
29.4
Ceiling
4.7
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 64% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
8%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 13 chances
-9.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (BAL)
9%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (BAL)
-2.2%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
3.01s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 13 games, Lamar Jackson averaged 16.5 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 298
14633% bust11% @1.5x390

Expect about 298 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 146 and 390, with a 33% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

13 games · 16.5 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@BUFL20920701100%Jacksontough29.4
2CLEW2254013095%Jacksontough26.3
3DETL28830350100%Jacksonsoft27.0
4@KCL1471148069%Jacksontough10.7
9@MIAW20440140100%Jacksonsoft25.6
10@MINW17610360100%Jacksontough16.6
11@CLEW19302100100%Jacksontough4.7
12NYJW15300110100%Jacksonsoft7.2
13CINL24601270100%Jacksonsoft6.5
14PITL21911431100%Jacksonsoft21.1
15@CINW1502126088%Jacksonsoft14.6
16NEL101007047%Huntleytough4.7
18@PITL2383190100%Jacksonsoft20.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -8.6% (1.1 → -7.5%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — BALvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@PIT
Wk 16
CLE
Wk 17
@CIN
Full season
Wk 1
@IND
Wk 2
NO
Wk 3
@DAL
Wk 4
TEN
Wk 5
@ATL
Wk 6
@CLE
Wk 7
CIN
Wk 8
@BUF
Wk 9
JAX
Wk 10
LAC
Wk 11
@CAR
Wk 12
@HOU
Wk 14
TB
Wk 15
@PIT
Wk 16
CLE
Wk 17
@CIN
Wk 18
PIT

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.