TrueSplits

Pat Bryant

WR · DEN · on the draft board

community activityADP falling
5.8PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (5.8) · 13 games
⚡ What changed
Since he stepped into a lead role (Wk 7):7.4 PPGup from 2
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

5.8
Avg PPG (split)
5.3
Median week
13.2
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 8%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
5%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 8 chances
+1.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (DEN)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (DEN)
8.7
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.4 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
10%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.8
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 13 games, Pat Bryant averaged 5.8 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168

Expect about 112 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 50 and 168, with a 94% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

13 games · 5.8 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
2@INDL218024%!Nixsoft3.8
4CINW00033%!Nixtough0.0
5@PHIW00054%Nixtough0.0
6@NYJW222058%Nixmid4.2
7NYGW16051%Nixsoft1.6
8DALW240156%Nixsoft12.0
9@HOUW220057%Nixtough4.0
10LVW143049%Nixmid5.3
11KCW582056%Nixtough13.2
13@WASW342070%Nixsoft7.2
14@LVW432047%Nixmid7.2
16JAXL542064%Nixmid9.2
18LACW431066%Nixtough7.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — DENvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Full season
Wk 1
@KC
Wk 2
JAX
Wk 3
LA
Wk 4
@SF
Wk 5
@LAC
Wk 6
SEA
Wk 7
@ARI
Wk 8
KC
Wk 9
@CAR
Wk 11
LV
Wk 12
@PIT
Wk 13
MIA
Wk 14
@NYJ
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Wk 18
LAC

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.