Justin Herbert
QB · LAC · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Across all 16 games, Justin Herbert averaged 17.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 126 and 336, with a 50% chance of finishing below replacement (257).
Game log
16 games · 17.9 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Pass yd | TD | INT | Rush yd | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCW | 318 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | tough | 27.9 |
| 2 | @LVW | 242 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | tough | 18.8 |
| 3 | DENW | 300 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | tough | 14.6 |
| 4 | @NYGL | 203 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | mid | 12.5 |
| 5 | WASL | 166 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 0 | 91% | Herbert | soft | 14.6 |
| 6 | @MIAW | 264 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | soft | 18.8 |
| 7 | INDL | 420 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | mid | 27.9 |
| 8 | MINW | 227 | 3 | 1 | 62 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | tough | 25.3 |
| 9 | @TENW | 250 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 1 | 100% | Herbert | mid | 27.7 |
| 10 | PITW | 220 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | soft | 14.7 |
| 11 | @JAXL | 81 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 73% | Herbert | tough | 3.3 |
| 13 | LVW | 151 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 85% | Herbert | tough | 12.8 |
| 14 | PHIW | 139 | 1 | 1 | 66 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | mid | 12.2 |
| 15 | @KCW | 210 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | tough | 10.4 |
| 16 | @DALW | 300 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 100% | Herbert | soft | 30.2 |
| 17 | HOUL | 236 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 100% | Herbert | mid | 15.1 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +2.5% (1.9 → 4.3%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.