TrueSplits

The record

Every fantasy site publishes rankings. None of them publish last year’s. This page is every call the board made, on the record and graded against what actually happened — the hits, the misses, and the base rate that says whether the hits meant anything.

The board’s own calls, graded — through Week 2

On 2026-09-02 the draft board made 191 calls. That board is pinned to commit 96d25dd; check it out and you get the same calls. Each Tuesday every one is graded against real per-game positional rank versus where the market drafted him. A Target is right if he beat his draft slot; a Fade is right if he fell below it. Nothing else counts, and a graded week is never edited.

Record
36–37
191 calls · 2 not yet playable
Targets
46%
12 right · 14 wrong
Fades
51%
24 right · 23 wrong
Base rate
43%
of ALL board players beat their ADP rank — a Target only means something above this

2 weeks of football does not grade a draft call; per-game ranks this early are mostly variance. The record is published anyway, from week one, because a ledger that only opens once it looks good is not a ledger.

Biggest hits

TargetDevaughn Veledrafted WR68 · now WR15 · 15.7 ppg over 2right
FadeJameson Williamsdrafted WR22 · now WR61 · 6.9 ppg over 2right
TargetTre Tuckerdrafted WR57 · now WR20 · 13.8 ppg over 2right
FadeSaquon Barkleydrafted RB10 · now RB46 · 6 ppg over 2right
FadeRome Odunzedrafted WR26 · now WR55 · 7.3 ppg over 2right

Worst misses

TargetQuentin Johnstondrafted WR44 · now WR100 · 3.1 ppg over 2wrong
FadeJalen Cokerdrafted WR52 · now WR6 · 24.2 ppg over 2wrong
TargetIsaac TeSlaadrafted WR70 · now WR107 · 2.3 ppg over 2wrong
TargetTroy Franklindrafted WR78 · now WR111 · 2.1 ppg over 2wrong
FadeRashod Batemandrafted WR63 · now WR31 · 10.9 ppg over 2wrong
We’re grading this board in public.

Every Tuesday: which of our Target and Fade calls were right, which were wrong, and what changed. Including the ones we get badly wrong.

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Every graded call (73)
FadeLamar Jacksondrafted QB3 · now QB10 · 19.9 ppg over 2right
FadeDak Prescottdrafted QB5 · now QB8 · 22.1 ppg over 2right
TargetJayden Danielsdrafted QB6 · now QB16 · 16.2 ppg over 2wrong
FadeJalen Hurtsdrafted QB8 · now QB9 · 20.4 ppg over 2right
FadeCaleb Williamsdrafted QB10 · now QB7 · 22.5 ppg over 2wrong
TargetTrevor Lawrencedrafted QB11 · now QB17 · 16.1 ppg over 2wrong
FadeJared Goffdrafted QB12 · now QB5 · 23.1 ppg over 2wrong
TargetPatrick Mahomesdrafted QB13 · now QB3 · 25.3 ppg over 2right
TargetJaxson Dartdrafted QB16 · now QB22 · 13.7 ppg over 2wrong
FadeBaker Mayfielddrafted QB17 · now QB25 · 11.9 ppg over 2right
FadeTyler Shoughdrafted QB19 · now QB6 · 22.8 ppg over 2wrong
TargetDaniel Jonesdrafted QB24 · now QB28 · 10.2 ppg over 2wrong
FadeCam Warddrafted QB27 · now QB18 · 15.9 ppg over 2wrong
TargetJacoby Brissettdrafted QB28 · now QB26 · 11.5 ppg over 2right
TargetAaron Rodgersdrafted QB29 · now QB32 · 8.3 ppg over 2wrong
FadeChase Browndrafted RB7 · now RB16 · 15 ppg over 2right
FadeDerrick Henrydrafted RB9 · now RB4 · 26.5 ppg over 2wrong
FadeSaquon Barkleydrafted RB10 · now RB46 · 6 ppg over 2right
FadeOmarion Hamptondrafted RB12 · now RB19 · 12.9 ppg over 2right
TargetCam Skattebodrafted RB17 · now RB22 · 11.8 ppg over 2wrong
FadeBucky Irvingdrafted RB19 · now RB12 · 16.7 ppg over 2wrong
FadeD'Andre Swiftdrafted RB20 · now RB5 · 22.7 ppg over 2wrong
FadeQuinshon Judkinsdrafted RB21 · now RB32 · 8.4 ppg over 2right
FadeBhayshul Tutendrafted RB23 · now RB20 · 12 ppg over 2wrong
FadeTony Pollarddrafted RB28 · now RB47 · 6 ppg over 2right
FadeChuba Hubbarddrafted RB30 · now RB8 · 19.1 ppg over 2wrong
FadeJacory Croskey-Merrittdrafted RB38 · now RB29 · 9.2 ppg over 2wrong
FadeTyler Warrendrafted TE4 · now TE10 · 12.4 ppg over 2right
TargetTucker Kraftdrafted TE7 · now TE27 · 6.5 ppg over 2wrong
TargetTravis Kelcedrafted TE9 · now TE5 · 17.6 ppg over 2right
FadeMark Andrewsdrafted TE12 · now TE15 · 9.9 ppg over 2right
TargetJake Fergusondrafted TE13 · now TE13 · 11.5 ppg over 2right
TargetDalton Kincaiddrafted TE17 · now TE2 · 20.3 ppg over 2right
TargetHunter Henrydrafted TE19 · now TE30 · 6.3 ppg over 2wrong
TargetAJ Barnerdrafted TE21 · now TE32 · 5.6 ppg over 2wrong
FadeTerrance Fergusondrafted TE22 · now TE17 · 8.7 ppg over 2wrong
TargetBrenton Strangedrafted TE23 · now TE25 · 7 ppg over 2wrong
TargetDalton Schultzdrafted TE24 · now TE6 · 16.8 ppg over 2right
TargetPat Freiermuthdrafted TE27 · now TE12 · 11.5 ppg over 2right
FadeCeeDee Lambdrafted WR6 · now WR5 · 25.3 ppg over 2wrong
FadeNico Collinsdrafted WR12 · now WR9 · 21.2 ppg over 1wrong
FadeZay Flowersdrafted WR14 · now WR3 · 26 ppg over 1wrong
FadeDeVonta Smithdrafted WR16 · now WR13 · 18 ppg over 2wrong
FadeTetairoa McMillandrafted WR17 · now WR22 · 12.8 ppg over 2right
FadeEmeka Egbukadrafted WR18 · now WR34 · 10.8 ppg over 2right
FadeLadd McConkeydrafted WR20 · now WR21 · 12.9 ppg over 2right
TargetDavante Adamsdrafted WR21 · now WR8 · 22.6 ppg over 2right
FadeJameson Williamsdrafted WR22 · now WR61 · 6.9 ppg over 2right
FadeRome Odunzedrafted WR26 · now WR55 · 7.3 ppg over 2right
FadeLuther Burden IIIdrafted WR28 · now WR51 · 7.9 ppg over 2right
TargetChristian Watsondrafted WR29 · now WR7 · 23.4 ppg over 2right
TargetParker Washingtondrafted WR32 · now WR12 · 18.1 ppg over 2right
FadeBrian Thomas Jr.drafted WR35 · now WR60 · 7 ppg over 2right
TargetMichael Wilsondrafted WR37 · now WR57 · 7.2 ppg over 2wrong
FadeChris Godwin Jr.drafted WR38 · now WR43 · 8.6 ppg over 2right
FadeJosh Downsdrafted WR40 · now WR37 · 10 ppg over 2wrong
TargetQuentin Johnstondrafted WR44 · now WR100 · 3.1 ppg over 2wrong
FadeKhalil Shakirdrafted WR46 · now WR49 · 7.9 ppg over 2right
FadeKeon Colemandrafted WR47 · now WR63 · 6.7 ppg over 2right
FadeXavier Worthydrafted WR48 · now WR40 · 9.2 ppg over 2wrong
FadeMatthew Goldendrafted WR49 · now WR24 · 12.7 ppg over 2wrong
FadeJalen Cokerdrafted WR52 · now WR6 · 24.2 ppg over 2wrong
TargetTre Tuckerdrafted WR57 · now WR20 · 13.8 ppg over 2right
FadeMalik Washingtondrafted WR61 · now WR52 · 7.5 ppg over 2wrong
FadeCooper Kuppdrafted WR62 · now WR86 · 4.8 ppg over 2right
FadeRashod Batemandrafted WR63 · now WR31 · 10.9 ppg over 2wrong
FadePat Bryantdrafted WR66 · now WR85 · 4.9 ppg over 2right
FadeRyan Flournoydrafted WR67 · now WR73 · 5.8 ppg over 2right
TargetDevaughn Veledrafted WR68 · now WR15 · 15.7 ppg over 2right
FadeJaylin Noeldrafted WR69 · now WR67 · 6.4 ppg over 2wrong
TargetIsaac TeSlaadrafted WR70 · now WR107 · 2.3 ppg over 2wrong
FadeTre' Harrisdrafted WR75 · now WR75 · 5.7 ppg over 2wrong
TargetTroy Franklindrafted WR78 · now WR111 · 2.1 ppg over 2wrong

Camp claims on the record

Dated, attributed statements from sources — a beat reporter, a coach — with the direction they imply, logged so they can be graded once the season decides.

Luther Burden III▲ bullish2026-07-11
“Head coach: his route tree has taken a step this camp”
— Bears HC presser Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
De'Von Achane▼ bearish2026-07-11
“Tua traded to ATL; Malik Willis (ex-GB backup) is QB1 — a clear passing downgrade”
— ESPN Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Tyreek Hill▼ bearish2026-07-11
“Tua traded to ATL; Willis at QB1 hits the WR passing value”
— ESPN Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Justin Jefferson• neutral2026-07-11
“MIN QB battle Murray vs J.J. McCarthy — Murray favored but no starter named before camp”
— SI/NBC Sports Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Bijan Robinson• neutral2026-07-11
“ATL QB1 competition Tua vs Michael Penix Jr. runs through camp”
— ESPN Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Brock Bowers• neutral2026-07-11
“LV QB unsettled — rookie Fernando Mendoza projected QB1 with Kirk Cousins as competition”
— CBS Sports Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Marvin Harrison Jr.▼ bearish2026-07-11
“Kyler Murray traded to MIN; Jacoby Brissett is QB1 — a downgrade”
— Team reports Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
Jonathan Taylor• neutral2026-07-11
“Daniel Jones is the confirmed 2026 starter — the QB his 24.8 baseline is priced off”
— Team reports Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season
A.J. Brown• neutral2026-07-11
“Traded PHI to NE; Drake Maye (ascending 2nd year) is QB1”
— NFL.com Jul 2026 · on the record · awaiting the season

A claim is a dated, attributed statement from a source (a beat reporter, a coach) about a player. We log the implied direction, then grade it once the season decides. Being honest about the misses is the point.