C.J. Stroud
QB · HOU · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Across all 14 games, C.J. Stroud averaged 14.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 205 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 100 and 267, with a 85% chance of finishing below replacement (257).
Game log
14 games · 14.9 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Pass yd | TD | INT | Rush yd | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LAL | 188 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | mid | 8.7 |
| 2 | TBL | 207 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | soft | 15.0 |
| 3 | @JAXL | 204 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | tough | 10.4 |
| 4 | TENW | 233 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | mid | 18.4 |
| 5 | @BALW | 244 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 80% | Stroud | mid | 28.8 |
| 7 | @SEAL | 229 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | tough | 13.7 |
| 8 | SFW | 318 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | soft | 21.7 |
| 9 | DENL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 32%! | Mills | tough | 4.4 |
| 13 | @INDW | 276 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | mid | 9.0 |
| 14 | @KCW | 203 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | tough | 12.6 |
| 15 | ARIW | 260 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | mid | 23.4 |
| 16 | LVW | 187 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | tough | 11.5 |
| 17 | @LACW | 244 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | Stroud | tough | 13.8 |
| 18 | INDW | 169 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 65% | Stroud | mid | 17.3 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -7.4% (2 → -5.4%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.