TrueSplits

C.J. Stroud

QB · HOU · on the draft board

market valueQB21· 410 value· tier 39· ▼ down 51 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
14.9PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (14.9) · 14 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

14.9
Avg PPG (split)
13.8
Median week
28.8
Ceiling
4.4
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 57% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
5%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 8 chances
-0.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (HOU)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (HOU)
+0.8%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.82s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 14 games, C.J. Stroud averaged 14.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267

Expect about 205 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 100 and 267, with a 85% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

14 games · 14.9 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@LAL18801320100%Stroudmid8.7
2TBL20710270100%Stroudsoft15.0
3@JAXL20412220100%Stroudtough10.4
4TENW23320110100%Stroudmid18.4
5@BALW2444030080%Stroudmid28.8
7@SEAL22911250100%Stroudtough13.7
8SFW31821300100%Stroudsoft21.7
9DENL790012032%!Millstough4.4
13@INDW2760100100%Stroudmid9.0
14@KCW2031050100%Stroudtough12.6
15ARIW26030100100%Stroudmid23.4
16LVW1871000100%Stroudtough11.5
17@LACW2442200100%Stroudtough13.8
18INDW169105165%Stroudmid17.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -7.4% (2-5.4%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — HOUvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Full season
Wk 1
BUF
Wk 2
CIN
Wk 3
@IND
Wk 4
DAL
Wk 5
@TEN
Wk 6
@JAX
Wk 7
NYG
Wk 9
@LAC
Wk 10
@CLE
Wk 11
IND
Wk 12
BAL
Wk 13
@PIT
Wk 14
@WAS
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Wk 18
TEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.