TrueSplits

Ollie Gordon II

RB · MIA · on the draft board

3.2PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (3.2) · 17 games
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

3.2
Avg PPG (split)
1.3
Median week
13.6
Ceiling
-0.3
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: volatileTD-reliance: 44% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
15%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 21 chances
-3.4%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (MIA)
13%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (MIA)

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Boom/bust watch: 45% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 153
5048% bust19% @1.5x250

Expect about 153 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 50 and 250, with a 48% chance of finishing below replacement (148).

Game log

17 games · 3.2 PPG avg
WkOppRush ydTDRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@INDL401-1025%!Tagovailoatough1.3
2NEL8015012%!Tagovailoatough2.3
3@BUFL38100025%!Tagovailoasoft9.8
4NYJW10000026%!Tagovailoasoft1.0
5@CARL-2000025%!Tagovailoasoft-0.2
6LACL1011022%!Tagovailoatough1.2
7@CLEL11012031%!Tagovailoamid2.3
8@ATLW460120130%!Tagovailoamid13.6
9BALL6013020%!Tagovailoasoft1.9
10BUFW-300006%!Tagovailoasoft-0.3
11WASW45100039%!Tagovailoasoft10.5
13NOW10000027%!Tagovailoamid1.0
14@NYJW17100025%!Tagovailoasoft7.7
15@PITL0000012%!Tagovailoatough0.0
16CINL-100005%!Ewerssoft-0.1
17TBW0000015%!Ewersmid0.0
18@NEL9012036%!Ewerstough2.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — MIAvs RB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Full season
Wk 1
@LV
Wk 2
@SF
Wk 3
KC
Wk 4
@MIN
Wk 5
CIN
Wk 7
@NYJ
Wk 8
NE
Wk 9
DET
Wk 10
@IND
Wk 11
@BUF
Wk 12
NYJ
Wk 13
@DEN
Wk 14
CHI
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Wk 18
@NE

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.