TrueSplits

Tetairoa McMillan

WR · CAR · on the draft board

market valueWR16· 3,744 value· tier 21· ▼ down 126 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
12.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (12.6) · 17 games
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

12.6
Avg PPG (split)
11.5
Median week
33
Ceiling
1.5
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 20%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
11%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 15 chances
-3.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (CAR)
10%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (CAR)
12.4
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.7 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
45%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Tetairoa McMillan averaged 12.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 207
9340% bust20% @1.5x312

Expect about 207 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 93 and 312, with a 40% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 12.6 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@JAXL568083%Youngmid11.8
2@ARIL6100085%Youngmid16.0
3ATLW348090%Youngmid7.8
4@NEL462094%Youngmid10.2
5MIAW673090%Youngmid13.3
6DALW329293%Youngsoft17.9
7@NYJW333087%Youngmid6.3
8BUFL799093%Daltontough16.9
9@GBW446084%Youngmid8.6
10NOL560091%Youngtough11.0
11@ATLW8130286%Youngmid33.0
12@SFL235191%Youngsoft11.5
13LAW143173%Youngsoft11.3
15@NOL225084%Youngtough4.5
16TBW673187%Youngmid19.3
17SEAL15083%Youngtough1.5
18@TBL485088%Youngmid12.5

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.4yd (2.82.3yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — CARvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
CIN
Wk 16
@PIT
Wk 17
SEA
Full season
Wk 1
CHI
Wk 2
@ATL
Wk 3
@CLE
Wk 4
DET
Wk 6
@PHI
Wk 7
TB
Wk 8
@GB
Wk 9
DEN
Wk 10
@NO
Wk 11
BAL
Wk 12
@TB
Wk 13
@MIN
Wk 14
NO
Wk 15
CIN
Wk 16
@PIT
Wk 17
SEA
Wk 18
ATL

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.