TrueSplits

Courtland Sutton

WR · DEN · on the draft board

market valueWR38· 971 value· tier 35· ▼ down 194 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
12.9PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (12.9) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

12.9
Avg PPG (split)
12.2
Median week
24.3
Ceiling
1.5
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 19%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
12%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 20 chances
+1.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (DEN)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (DEN)
12.6
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.3 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
36%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Courtland Sutton averaged 12.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 171
7757% bust7% @1.5x258

Expect about 171 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 77 and 258, with a 57% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 12.9 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1TENW661195%Nixsoft18.1
2@INDL16078%Nixsoft1.6
3@LACL6118181%Nixtough23.8
4CINW581185%Nixtough19.1
5@PHIW899095%Nixtough17.9
6@NYJW117080%Nixmid2.7
7NYGW687094%Nixsoft16.7
8DALW467084%Nixsoft10.7
9@HOUW130192%Nixtough10.0
10LVW324087%Nixmid5.4
11KCW459092%Nixtough9.9
13@WASW562181%Nixsoft17.2
14@LVW662065%Nixmid12.2
15GBW7113188%Nixmid24.3
16JAXL686194%Nixmid20.6
17@KCW440082%Nixtough8.0
18LACW15078%Nixtough1.5

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 21

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.2yd (2.32.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — DENvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Full season
Wk 1
@KC
Wk 2
JAX
Wk 3
LA
Wk 4
@SF
Wk 5
@LAC
Wk 6
SEA
Wk 7
@ARI
Wk 8
KC
Wk 9
@CAR
Wk 11
LV
Wk 12
@PIT
Wk 13
MIA
Wk 14
@NYJ
Wk 15
@LV
Wk 16
BUF
Wk 17
@NE
Wk 18
LAC

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.