TrueSplits

Matthew Stafford

QB · LA · on the draft board

market valueQB14· 1,417 value· tier 33· ▲ up 299 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
20.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (20.6) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

20.6
Avg PPG (split)
22.9
Median week
30.9
Ceiling
9.3
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 79% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
4%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 7 chances
+5.1%
Team pass rate (PROE)
pass-leaning play-caller (LA)
17%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (LA)
+1.5%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.80s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Matthew Stafford averaged 20.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 262
12948% bust5% @1.5x342

Expect about 262 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 129 and 342, with a 48% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 20.6 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1HOUW24510-20100%Staffordmid13.6
2@TENW29821-60100%Staffordmid17.3
3@PHIL1962100100%Staffordmid13.8
4INDW3753040100%Staffordmid27.4
5SFL3893000100%Staffordsoft25.6
6@BALW1811010100%Staffordmid9.3
7@JAXW182501096%Staffordtough27.4
9NOW28140-40100%Staffordmid26.8
10@SFW28040-30100%Staffordsoft26.9
11SEAW1302000100%Staffordtough13.2
12TBW2733000100%Staffordsoft22.9
13@CARL24322-10100%Staffordtough11.6
14@ARIW281300083%Staffordmid23.2
15DETW3682120100%Staffordsoft20.9
16@SEAL4573060100%Staffordtough30.9
17@ATLL2692300100%Staffordmid12.8
18ARIW259403096%Staffordmid26.7

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 21

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -3.5% (1.8-1.7%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — LAvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
DAL
Wk 16
@SEA
Wk 17
@TB
Full season
Wk 1
SF
Wk 2
NYG
Wk 3
@DEN
Wk 4
@PHI
Wk 5
BUF
Wk 6
ARI
Wk 7
@LV
Wk 8
LAC
Wk 9
@WAS
Wk 10
@ARI
Wk 12
GB
Wk 13
KC
Wk 14
@SF
Wk 15
DAL
Wk 16
@SEA
Wk 17
@TB
Wk 18
SEA

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.