TrueSplits

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · on the draft board

market valueQB30· 65 value· tier 44· ▲ up 24 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
11.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (11.6) · 15 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

11.6
Avg PPG (split)
9.8
Median week
26.3
Ceiling
2.8
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 66% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 7 chances
-1.2%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (LV)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (LV)
+0.8%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.80s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 15 games, Geno Smith averaged 11.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267

Expect about 205 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 100 and 267, with a 85% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

15 games · 11.6 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@NEW36211100100%Smithtough17.5
2LACL18003200100%Smithtough3.2
3@WASL2893050100%Smithsoft26.1
4CHIL11723310100%Smithsoft9.8
5@INDL2280280100%Smithmid5.9
6TENW17411-30100%Smithmid8.7
7@KCL67001086%Smithtough2.8
9JAXL2844190100%Smithtough26.3
10@DENL143017097%Smithtough4.4
11DALL23811140100%Smithsoft12.9
12CLEL2851080100%Smithtough14.2
13@LACL16521-60100%Smithtough12.0
14DENL116104074%Smithtough9.0
16@HOUL2012100100%Smithmid14.0
17NYGL176121090%Smithmid7.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 17

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +9.4% (-1.57.9%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — NYJvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@ARI
Wk 16
NE
Wk 17
MIN
Full season
Wk 1
@TEN
Wk 2
GB
Wk 3
@DET
Wk 4
@CHI
Wk 5
CLE
Wk 6
@NE
Wk 7
MIA
Wk 8
LV
Wk 9
@KC
Wk 10
BUF
Wk 11
@LAC
Wk 12
@MIA
Wk 14
DEN
Wk 15
@ARI
Wk 16
NE
Wk 17
MIN
Wk 18
@BUF

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.