TrueSplits

AJ Barner

TE · SEA · on the draft board

market valueTE22· 161 value· tier 42· ▲ up 7 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
8.7PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (8.7) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

8.7
Avg PPG (split)
7.7
Median week
24.3
Ceiling
0.3
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 29%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
10%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 16 chances
-5.3%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (SEA)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (SEA)
4.8
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
4.1 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
9%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.8
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, AJ Barner averaged 8.7 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 113
5848% bust11% @1.5x167

Expect about 113 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 58 and 167, with a 48% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

17 games · 8.7 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1SFL10085%Darnoldmid1.2
2@PITW226189%Darnoldsoft10.8
3NOW123054%Darnoldtough3.3
4@ARIW332186%Darnoldsoft12.2
5TBL753280%Darnoldsoft24.3
6@JAXW371078%Darnoldmid10.1
7HOUW17086%Darnoldtough1.9
9@WASW324084%Darnoldsoft11.5
10ARIW00037%!Darnoldsoft0.3
11@LAL1070087%Darnoldmid17.1
12@TENW218079%Darnoldsoft3.8
13MINW435085%Darnoldtough7.7
14@ATLW327067%Darnoldtough5.7
15INDW327083%Darnoldsoft5.7
16LAW449194%Darnoldmid15.0
17@CARW343179%Darnoldmid13.3
18@SFW214061%Darnoldmid3.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — SEAvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Full season
Wk 1
NE
Wk 2
@ARI
Wk 3
@WAS
Wk 4
LAC
Wk 5
SF
Wk 6
@DEN
Wk 7
KC
Wk 8
CHI
Wk 9
ARI
Wk 10
@LV
Wk 12
@SF
Wk 13
DAL
Wk 14
NYG
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Wk 18
@LA

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.