TrueSplits

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · SEA · on the draft board

market valueWR3· 8,714 value· tier 4· ▼ down 594 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
21.2PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (21.2) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

21.2
Avg PPG (split)
20.6
Median week
37.1
Ceiling
4.3
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 17%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
10%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 17 chances
-5.3%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (SEA)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (SEA)
11.3
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.0 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
49%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.8
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged 21.2 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 261
11725% bust45% @1.5x393

Expect about 261 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 117 and 393, with a 25% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 21.2 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1SFL9124077%Darnoldsoft19.4
2@PITW8103065%Darnoldsoft18.3
3NOW596149%Darnoldtough20.6
4@ARIW479080%Darnoldmid13.0
5TBL8132190%Darnoldmid27.2
6@JAXW8162182%Darnoldmid30.2
7HOUW8123188%Darnoldtough26.3
9@WASW8129067%Darnoldsoft22.0
10ARIW593142%Darnoldmid20.3
11@LAL9105083%Darnoldsoft20.6
12@TENW8167279%Darnoldsoft37.1
13MINW223082%Darnoldtough4.3
14@ATLW792272%Darnoldmid28.1
15INDW7113092%Darnoldsoft18.3
16LAW896196%Darnoldsoft23.6
17@CARW972089%Darnoldtough16.2
18@SFW684083%Darnoldsoft14.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 23

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: 0yd (33yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — SEAvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Full season
Wk 1
NE
Wk 2
@ARI
Wk 3
@WAS
Wk 4
LAC
Wk 5
SF
Wk 6
@DEN
Wk 7
KC
Wk 8
CHI
Wk 9
ARI
Wk 10
@LV
Wk 12
@SF
Wk 13
DAL
Wk 14
NYG
Wk 15
@PHI
Wk 16
LA
Wk 17
@CAR
Wk 18
@LA

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.