TrueSplits

Daniel Jones

QB · IND · on the draft board

market valueQB25· 185 value· tier 42· ▼ down 58 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
17.4PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (17.4) · 13 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

17.4
Avg PPG (split)
16.7
Median week
29.5
Ceiling
0.8
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 64% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
9%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 16 chances
-0.1%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (IND)
14%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (IND)
+3.4%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.70s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 13 games, Daniel Jones averaged 17.4 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267

Expect about 205 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 100 and 267, with a 85% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

13 games · 17.4 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1MIAW27210262100%Jonessoft29.5
2DENW3161021100%Jonestough22.8
3@TENW2281027088%Jonesmid15.8
4@LAL26212-10100%Jonesmid10.4
5LVW212202089%Jonestough16.7
6ARIW21221201100%Jonesmid22.5
7@LACW2882070100%Jonestough22.2
8TENW272303089%Jonesmid23.2
9@PITL3421341100%Jonessoft14.1
10ATLW25511530100%Jonesmid15.5
12@KCL18120160100%Jonestough16.8
13HOUL2012010100%Jonesmid16.1
14@JAXL60014023%!Leonardtough0.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 13

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -9.9% (6.7-3.2%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — INDvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@TEN
Wk 16
CIN
Wk 17
@CLE
Full season
Wk 1
BAL
Wk 2
@KC
Wk 3
HOU
Wk 4
@WAS
Wk 5
@PIT
Wk 6
TEN
Wk 7
@MIN
Wk 8
@JAX
Wk 9
DAL
Wk 10
MIA
Wk 11
@HOU
Wk 12
NYG
Wk 14
@PHI
Wk 15
@TEN
Wk 16
CIN
Wk 17
@CLE
Wk 18
JAX

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.