TrueSplits

Tyler Warren

TE · IND · on the draft board

market valueTE4· 3,160 value· tier 24· ▲ up 107 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
11.1PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (11.1) · 17 games
⚡ What changed
Since Daniel Jones went out (Wk 14):6.3 PPGdown from 13.1
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

11.1
Avg PPG (split)
9.5
Median week
18.3
Ceiling
3.7
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 16%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
14%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 27 chances
-0.1%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (IND)
14%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (IND)
5.5
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.3 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
14%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.6
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Tyler Warren averaged 11.1 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 148
7625% bust38% @1.5x220

Expect about 148 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 76 and 220, with a 25% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

17 games · 11.1 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1MIAW776073%Jonessoft14.9
2DENW479093%Jonesmid11.9
3@TENW338068%Jonessoft6.8
4@LAL570089%Jonesmid18.3
5LVW444171%Jonesmid14.4
6ARIW663188%Jonessoft18.3
7@LACW469192%Jonestough16.9
8TENW453074%Jonessoft9.3
9@PITL526085%Jonessoft7.6
10ATLW899088%Jonestough17.9
12@KCL545086%Jonestough9.5
13HOUL322187%Jonestough11.2
14@JAXL215093%Leonardmid3.7
15@SEAL319082%Riverssoft4.9
16SFL330088%Riversmid6.0
17JAXL543086%Riversmid9.3
18@HOUL526082%Leonardtough7.6

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.9yd (3.52.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — INDvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@TEN
Wk 16
CIN
Wk 17
@CLE
Full season
Wk 1
BAL
Wk 2
@KC
Wk 3
HOU
Wk 4
@WAS
Wk 5
@PIT
Wk 6
TEN
Wk 7
@MIN
Wk 8
@JAX
Wk 9
DAL
Wk 10
MIA
Wk 11
@HOU
Wk 12
NYG
Wk 14
@PHI
Wk 15
@TEN
Wk 16
CIN
Wk 17
@CLE
Wk 18
JAX

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.