TrueSplits

Jayden Higgins

WR · HOU · on the draft board

7.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (7.6) · 17 games
⚡ What changed
Since he stepped into a lead role (Wk 8):9.3 PPGup from 4.5
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

7.6
Avg PPG (split)
7.2
Median week
16.8
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 28%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 9 chances
-0.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (HOU)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (HOU)
12.0
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.7 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
18%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
-0.1
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Jayden Higgins averaged 7.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 126
5687% bust5% @1.5x190

Expect about 126 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 56 and 190, with a 87% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 7.6 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@LAL232043%Stroudsoft5.2
2TBL128043%Stroudmid3.8
3@JAXL15044%Stroudmid1.5
4TENW124144%Stroudsoft9.4
5@BALW432056%Stroudsoft7.2
7@SEAL00063%Stroudtough0.0
8SFW434182%Stroudsoft13.4
9DENL14048%Millstough1.4
10JAXW542157%Millsmid15.2
11@TENW455061%Millssoft9.5
12BUFW438158%Millstough13.8
13@INDW565058%Stroudsoft11.5
14@KCW334060%Stroudtough6.4
15ARIW14072%Stroudmid1.4
16LVW117054%Stroudmid2.7
17@LACW288149%Stroudtough16.8
18INDW223181%Stroudsoft10.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 8Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.3yd (2.32.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — HOUvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Full season
Wk 1
BUF
Wk 2
CIN
Wk 3
@IND
Wk 4
DAL
Wk 5
@TEN
Wk 6
@JAX
Wk 7
NYG
Wk 9
@LAC
Wk 10
@CLE
Wk 11
IND
Wk 12
BAL
Wk 13
@PIT
Wk 14
@WAS
Wk 15
JAX
Wk 16
@PHI
Wk 17
@GB
Wk 18
TEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.