TrueSplits

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · on the draft board

market valueQB20· 557 value· tier 38· ▼ down 35 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
15.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (15.6) · 5 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

15.6
Avg PPG (split)
15.3
Median week
18.3
Ceiling
14
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 54% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
3%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 4 chances
+5.8%
Team pass rate (PROE)
pass-leaning play-caller (ARI)
14%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (ARI)
-1.0%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.68s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Boom/bust watch: 44% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 223
11075% bust5% @1.5x292

Expect about 223 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 110 and 292, with a 75% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

5 games · 15.6 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1@NOW16320380100%Murraymid18.3
2CARW2201132098%Murraytough14.0
3@SFL15910370100%Murraysoft14.1
4SEAL20022410100%Murraytough16.1
5TENL2200025196%Murraymid15.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — MINvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 3 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
DET
Wk 16
WAS
Wk 17
@NYJ
Full season
Wk 1
GB
Wk 2
@CHI
Wk 3
@TB
Wk 4
MIA
Wk 5
@NO
Wk 7
IND
Wk 8
@DET
Wk 9
BUF
Wk 10
@GB
Wk 11
@SF
Wk 12
ATL
Wk 13
CAR
Wk 14
@NE
Wk 15
DET
Wk 16
WAS
Wk 17
@NYJ
Wk 18
CHI

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.