TrueSplits

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · on the draft board

market valueQB9· 1,927 value· tier 30· ▼ down 189 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
19.9PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (19.9) · 17 games
SeasonLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

19.9
Avg PPG (split)
19.2
Median week
44.3
Ceiling
7.8
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 67% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
12%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 24 chances
+1.9%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (JAX)
10%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (JAX)
-2.7%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.87s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Across all 17 games, Trevor Lawrence averaged 19.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 260
12848% bust5% @1.5x340

Expect about 260 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 128 and 340, with a 48% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 19.9 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
1CARW17811120100%Lawrencetough10.3
2@CINL2713240100%Lawrencesoft19.2
3HOUW2220190100%Lawrencemid7.8
4@SFW1741070100%Lawrencesoft11.7
5KCW22111542100%Lawrencetough26.2
6SEAL2582090100%Lawrencetough19.2
7LAL29610180100%Lawrencemid17.6
9@LVW22001242100%Lawrencetough21.2
10@HOUL15811350100%Lawrencemid9.8
11LACW153119189%Lawrencetough15.0
12@ARIW25633290100%Lawrencemid17.1
13@TENW2292025095%Lawrencemid21.7
14INDW2442016091%Lawrencemid19.4
15NYJW3305051187%Lawrencesoft44.3
16@DENW27930201100%Lawrencetough31.2
17@INDW26301262100%Lawrencemid23.1
18TENW2553011082%Lawrencemid23.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 19

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +6.3% (-3.52.8%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — JAXvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
@HOU
Wk 16
@DAL
Wk 17
WAS
Full season
Wk 1
CLE
Wk 2
@DEN
Wk 3
NE
Wk 4
@CIN
Wk 5
PHI
Wk 6
HOU
Wk 8
IND
Wk 9
@BAL
Wk 10
@TEN
Wk 11
@NYG
Wk 12
TEN
Wk 13
@CHI
Wk 14
PIT
Wk 15
@HOU
Wk 16
@DAL
Wk 17
WAS
Wk 18
@IND

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.