Luther Burden III
WR · CHI · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 8.5-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
Across all 15 games, Luther Burden III averaged 8.5 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.
Expect about 171 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 77 and 258, with a 57% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
15 games · 8.5 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MINL | 1 | -3 | 0 | 27%! | Williams | tough | 0.7 |
| 2 | @DETL | 1 | 5 | 0 | 18%! | Williams | soft | 1.5 |
| 3 | DALW | 3 | 101 | 1 | 29%! | Williams | soft | 19.8 |
| 4 | @LVW | 2 | -4 | 0 | 28%! | Williams | mid | 1.6 |
| 6 | @WASW | 4 | 51 | 0 | 23%! | Williams | soft | 9.1 |
| 7 | NOW | 1 | 22 | 0 | 28%! | Williams | tough | 3.1 |
| 8 | @BALL | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17%! | Williams | soft | 0.9 |
| 10 | NYGW | 3 | 51 | 0 | 49% | Williams | soft | 8.1 |
| 11 | @MINW | 3 | 27 | 0 | 44% | Williams | tough | 5.7 |
| 12 | PITW | 3 | 46 | 0 | 51% | Williams | soft | 9.1 |
| 13 | @PHIW | 4 | 33 | 0 | 51% | Williams | tough | 7.6 |
| 14 | @GBL | 4 | 67 | 0 | 71% | Williams | mid | 11.0 |
| 15 | CLEW | 6 | 84 | 0 | 39%! | Williams | mid | 14.4 |
| 17 | @SFL | 8 | 138 | 1 | 58% | Williams | soft | 27.8 |
| 18 | DETL | 3 | 35 | 0 | 62% | Williams | soft | 7.5 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.3yd (4.5 → 4.2yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.