TrueSplits

Jaxson Dart

QB · NYG · on the draft board

market valueQB15· 1,358 value· tier 34· ▼ down 265 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
20.6PPG
+3.4 vs 2025 avg (17.3) · 10 games
Signal
⚡ What changed
Since he stepped into a lead role (Wk 6):20.6 PPGup from 8.9
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · since Wk 6
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

20.6
Avg PPG (split)
22.9
Median week
28.4
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 58% · regression risk
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
13%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 22 chances
-4.7%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (NYG)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (NYG)
-2.0%
Completion % over exp
accuracy vs throw difficulty
2.82s
Time to throw
avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Signal: This 11.8-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±10.2).

Across all 10 games, Jaxson Dart averaged 20.6 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 258
12650% bust5% @1.5x336

Expect about 258 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 126 and 336, with a 50% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

14 games · 17.3 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
2@DALL000-304%!Wilsonsoft-0.3
3KCL000305%!Wilsontough0.3
4LACW1111054197%Darttough19.8
5@NOL20222550100%Dartmid15.6
6PHIW1951058197%Dartmid23.6
7@DENL28331111100%Darttough28.4
8@PHIL19310171100%Dartmid19.4
9SFL19120561100%Dartsoft27.2
10@CHIL2420066271%Dartsoft26.3
13@NEL13910200100%Darttough13.6
15WASL2462163097%Dartsoft22.1
16MINL330170100%Darttough0.0
17@LVW20700482100%Darttough25.1
18DALW23020320100%Dartsoft20.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 4Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +5.4% (-3 → 2.4%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — NYGvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 2 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
CLE
Wk 16
@DET
Wk 17
@DAL
Full season
Wk 1
DAL
Wk 2
@LA
Wk 3
TEN
Wk 4
ARI
Wk 5
@WAS
Wk 6
NO
Wk 7
@HOU
Wk 9
@PHI
Wk 10
WAS
Wk 11
JAX
Wk 12
@IND
Wk 13
SF
Wk 14
@SEA
Wk 15
CLE
Wk 16
@DET
Wk 17
@DAL
Wk 18
PHI

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.