TrueSplits

Harold Fannin Jr.

TE · CLE · on the draft board

market valueTE7· 1,715 value· tier 32· ▲ up 187 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
13.2PPG
+1.5 vs 2025 avg (11.7) · 7 games
Likely noise
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Sanders
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

13.2
Avg PPG (split)
11.3
Median week
25.4
Ceiling
4.6
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 33%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
11%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 13 chances
-4.1%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (CLE)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (CLE)
5.9
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.9 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
18%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+1.2
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Likely noise: This 2.7-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±5.7), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.

In games with sanders, Fannin averaged 13.2 PPG1.5 more than the 11.7 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Boom/bust watch: 49% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196

Expect about 132 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 68 and 196, with a 34% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

16 games · 11.7 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1CINL763072%Flaccosoft13.6
2@BALL548063%Flaccotough9.8
3GBW325064%Flaccomid5.5
4@DETL224085%Flaccomid4.5
5MINL413179%Gabrieltough11.3
6@PITL781080%Gabrielsoft15.1
7MIAW436082%Gabrielsoft7.6
8@NEL662174%Gabrielsoft18.4
10@NYJL444066%Gabrielsoft8.4
11BALL226073%Sanderstough4.6
12@LVW440090%Sandersmid8.4
13SFL343192%Sandersmid11.3
14TENL8114190%Sanderssoft25.4
15@CHIL748096%Sandersmid12.0
16BUFL434186%Sanderstough19.5
17PITW230123%!Sanderssoft11.0

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 16

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.5yd (2.83.4yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — CLEvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@NYG
Wk 16
@BAL
Wk 17
IND
Full season
Wk 1
@JAX
Wk 2
@TB
Wk 3
CAR
Wk 4
PIT
Wk 5
@NYJ
Wk 6
BAL
Wk 7
@TEN
Wk 8
@PIT
Wk 9
@NO
Wk 10
HOU
Wk 12
LV
Wk 13
CIN
Wk 14
ATL
Wk 15
@NYG
Wk 16
@BAL
Wk 17
IND
Wk 18
@CIN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.