Jaylin Noel

WR · HOU · on the draft board

4.4PPG

+0.4 vs 2025 avg (4) · 13 games

Likely noise

Which QB was under centerLive · Free

Game script & venueLive · Free

Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free

Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)

any snaps

Honest filtersLive · Free

Scoring

Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Stroud

Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

4.4

Avg PPG (split)

1.7

Median week

14.6

Ceiling

Floor

start/sit readConsistency: volatileTD-reliance: 21%

Usage & role context — 2025Prior season

Red-zone role

share of team RZ opps · 7 chances

-0.5%

Team pass rate (PROE)

balanced play-caller (HOU)

11%

Team play-action

of dropbacks (HOU)

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Likely noise: This 1.6-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±4.9), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.

In games with stroud, Noel averaged 4.4 PPG — 0.4 more than the 4 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Boom/bust watch: 46% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 98

4495% bust5% @1.5x148

Expect about 98 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 44 and 148, with a 95% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 4.0 PPG avg

Wk	Opp	Rec	Yds	TD	Snap	QB	Def	Pts
1	@LAL	1	7	0	27%!	Stroud	soft	1.7
2	TBL	0	0	0	31%!	Stroud	mid	0.0
3	@JAXL	1	4	0	14%!	Stroud	mid	1.4
4	TENW	1	-2	0	24%!	Stroud	soft	1.0
5	@BALW	2	13	1	30%!	Stroud	soft	9.8
7	@SEAL	4	77	0	43%	Stroud	tough	11.7
8	SFW	5	63	0	39%!	Stroud	soft	11.3
9	DENL	0	0	0	15%!	Mills	tough	-0.3
10	JAXW	4	35	0	33%!	Mills	mid	7.5
11	@TENW	1	12	0	26%!	Mills	soft	2.2
12	BUFW	1	4	0	29%!	Mills	tough	1.9
13	@INDW	0	0	0	24%!	Stroud	soft	0.0
14	@KCW	2	12	0	36%!	Stroud	tough	3.3
15	ARIW	0	0	0	16%!	Stroud	mid	0.0
16	LVW	0	0	0	14%!	Stroud	mid	0.0
17	@LACW	3	54	1	25%!	Stroud	tough	14.6
18	INDW	1	13	0	16%!	Stroud	soft	2.3

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — HOUvs WR · 2025 defenses

Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 0 soft, 1 tough

Wk 15

JAX

Wk 16

@PHI

Wk 17

@GB

Full season

Wk 1

BUF

Wk 2

CIN

Wk 3

@IND

Wk 4

DAL

Wk 5

@TEN

Wk 6

@JAX

Wk 7

NYG

Wk 9

@LAC

Wk 10

@CLE

Wk 11

IND

Wk 12

BAL

Wk 13

@PIT

Wk 14

@WAS

Wk 15

JAX

Wk 16

@PHI

Wk 17

@GB

Wk 18

TEN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.