TrueSplits

Colston Loveland

TE · CHI · on the draft board

market valueTE3· 3,697 value· tier 21· ▲ up 22 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
12.9PPG
+2.6 vs 2025 avg (10.3) · 12 games
Signal
⚡ What changed
Since he stepped into a lead role (Wk 7):12.9 PPGup from 2.6
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · since Wk 7
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

12.9
Avg PPG (split)
9.8
Median week
29.8
Ceiling
5.4
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 23%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
9%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 16 chances
-2.3%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (CHI)
15%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (CHI)
8.9
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.7 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
16%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.7
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Signal: This 10.3-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±8.5).

Across all 12 games, Colston Loveland averaged 12.9 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 150
7724% bust40% @1.5x223

Expect about 150 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 77 and 223, with a 24% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

16 games · 10.3 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1MINL212057%Williamstough3.2
2@DETL00053%Williamsmid0.0
3DALW131010%!Williamsmid4.1
6@WASW211042%Williamssoft3.1
7NOW324067%Williamstough5.4
8@BALL338081%Williamstough6.8
9@CINW6118281%Williamssoft29.8
10NYGW455062%Williamstough9.5
11@MINW340075%Williamstough7.0
12PITW449165%Williamssoft14.9
13@PHIW328059%Williamstough5.8
14@GBL429159%Williamsmid12.9
15CLEW463065%Williamstough10.1
16GBW330083%Williamsmid6.0
17@SFL694182%Williamsmid21.4
18DETL1091191%Williamsmid25.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 8Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: 0yd (3.53.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — CHIvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@BUF
Wk 16
GB
Wk 17
DET
Full season
Wk 1
@CAR
Wk 2
MIN
Wk 3
PHI
Wk 4
NYJ
Wk 5
@GB
Wk 6
@ATL
Wk 7
NE
Wk 8
@SEA
Wk 9
TB
Wk 11
NO
Wk 12
@DET
Wk 13
JAX
Wk 14
@MIA
Wk 15
@BUF
Wk 16
GB
Wk 17
DET
Wk 18
@MIN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.