Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · on the draft board

market valueQB6· 2,729 value· tier 25· ▼ down 56 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR

18.8PPG

+0 vs 2025 avg (18.8) · 17 games

Not enough games

SeasonLive · Free

Game script & venueLive · Free

Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free

Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)

any snaps

Honest filtersLive · Free

Scoring

Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games

Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

18.8

Avg PPG (split)

Median week

38.7

Ceiling

4.7

Floor

start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 58% · regression risk

Usage & role context — 2025Prior season

12%

Red-zone role

share of team RZ opps · 21 chances

-2.3%

Team pass rate (PROE)

balanced play-caller (CHI)

15%

Team play-action

of dropbacks (CHI)

-6.9%

Completion % over exp

accuracy vs throw difficulty

3.20s

Time to throw

avg snap to release

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 18.8-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 17 games, Caleb Williams averaged 18.8 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 261

12848% bust5% @1.5x341

Expect about 261 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 128 and 341, with a 48% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

17 games · 18.8 PPG avg

Wk	Opp	Pass yd	TD	INT	Rush yd	TD	Snap	QB	Def	Pts
1	MINL	210	1	0	58	1	100%	Williams	tough	24.2
2	@DETL	207	2	1	27	0	84%	Williams	soft	17.0
3	DALW	298	4	0	12	0	100%	Williams	soft	29.1
4	@LVW	212	1	1	13	0	100%	Williams	tough	11.8
6	@WASW	252	1	0	3	1	100%	Williams	soft	20.4
7	NOW	172	0	1	-2	0	100%	Williams	mid	4.7
8	@BALL	285	0	1	24	0	100%	Williams	mid	11.8
9	@CINW	280	3	0	53	0	100%	Williams	soft	38.7
10	NYGW	220	1	0	63	1	100%	Williams	mid	25.1
11	@MINW	193	0	0	26	0	100%	Williams	tough	10.3
12	PITW	239	3	0	21	0	100%	Williams	soft	21.7
13	@PHIW	154	1	1	13	0	100%	Williams	mid	9.5
14	@GBL	186	2	1	15	0	100%	Williams	soft	14.9
15	CLEW	242	2	0	13	0	100%	Williams	tough	19.0
16	GBW	250	2	0	30	0	100%	Williams	soft	21.0
17	@SFL	330	2	0	18	0	100%	Williams	soft	23.0
18	DETL	212	2	1	1	0	100%	Williams	soft	16.6

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Completion % over expected — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025

Wk 1Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.6% (-7.4 → -6.7%). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — CHIvs QB · 2025 defenses

Fantasy playoffs (wk 15–17) · 1 soft, 1 tough

Wk 15

@BUF

Wk 16

Wk 17

DET

Full season

Wk 1

@CAR

Wk 2

MIN

Wk 3

PHI

Wk 4

NYJ

Wk 5

@GB

Wk 6

@ATL

Wk 7

Wk 8

@SEA

Wk 9

Wk 11

Wk 12

@DET

Wk 13

JAX

Wk 14

@MIA

Wk 15

@BUF

Wk 16

Wk 17

DET

Wk 18

@MIN

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.