Adonai Mitchell
WR · NYJ · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Uncertain: This 5.4-PPG gap is on the edge of the margin of error — suggestive, but this sample can't cleanly separate it from his ±6.8 week-to-week swing.
In games with jones, Mitchell averaged 2.8 PPG — 2.7 fewer than the 5.5 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Boom/bust watch: 66% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.
Expect about 92 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 41 and 138, with a 95% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
16 games · 5.5 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIAW | 2 | 21 | 0 | 21%! | Jones | mid | 4.1 |
| 2 | DENW | 2 | 20 | 0 | 10%! | Jones | tough | 4.0 |
| 3 | @TENW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42% | Jones | soft | 0.0 |
| 4 | @LAL | 3 | 96 | 0 | 89% | Jones | soft | 10.6 |
| 5 | LVW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9%! | Jones | mid | 0.0 |
| 7 | @LACW | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8%! | Jones | tough | 1.8 |
| 8 | TENW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17%! | Jones | soft | 0.0 |
| 9 | @PITL | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5%! | Jones | soft | 1.7 |
| 11 | @NEL | 1 | 10 | 0 | 49% | Fields | mid | 2.0 |
| 12 | @BALL | 2 | 42 | 0 | 85% | Taylor | soft | 6.2 |
| 13 | ATLW | 8 | 102 | 1 | 86% | Taylor | mid | 24.2 |
| 14 | MIAL | 1 | 24 | 0 | 91% | Cook | mid | 3.4 |
| 15 | @JAXL | 6 | 58 | 1 | 79% | Cook | mid | 17.4 |
| 16 | @NOL | 3 | 43 | 0 | 86% | Cook | tough | 7.3 |
| 17 | NEL | 3 | 22 | 0 | 81% | Cook | mid | 5.2 |
| 18 | @BUFL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52% | Cook | tough | 0.0 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.2yd (2.7 → 2.9yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.