TrueSplits

Marvin Harrison Jr.

WR · ARI · on the draft board

market valueWR32· 1,759 value· tier 31· ▼ down 236 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
12.5PPG
+1.9 vs 2025 avg (10.7) · 5 games
Likely noise
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Murray
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

12.5
Avg PPG (split)
13.8
Median week
18.6
Ceiling
4.7
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 19%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
7%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 11 chances
+5.8%
Team pass rate (PROE)
pass-leaning play-caller (ARI)
14%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (ARI)
13.6
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.4 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
22%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+0.6
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Likely noise: This 3.2-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±7.1), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.

In games with murray, Harrison averaged 12.5 PPG1.9 more than the 10.7 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Boom/bust watch: 59% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 165
7461% bust6% @1.5x249

Expect about 165 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 74 and 249, with a 61% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

12 games · 10.7 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@NOW571189%Murraytough18.1
2CARW227093%Murraytough4.7
3@SFL344080%Murraysoft7.4
4SEAL6661100%Murraytough18.6
5TENL498076%Murraysoft13.8
6@INDL232023%!Brissettsoft5.2
7GBL258086%Brissettmid7.8
9@DALW796172%Brissettsoft22.6
10@SEAL333191%Brissetttough14.3
13@TBL669061%Brissettmid12.9
16ATLL114051%Brissettmid2.4
17@CINL00033%!Brissetttough0.0

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 13

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.4yd (2.72.3yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — ARIvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
NYJ
Wk 16
@NO
Wk 17
LV
Full season
Wk 1
@LAC
Wk 2
SEA
Wk 3
@SF
Wk 4
@NYG
Wk 5
DET
Wk 6
@LA
Wk 7
DEN
Wk 8
@DAL
Wk 9
@SEA
Wk 10
LA
Wk 11
@KC
Wk 12
WAS
Wk 13
PHI
Wk 15
NYJ
Wk 16
@NO
Wk 17
LV
Wk 18
SF

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.