TrueSplits

Jayden Reed

WR · GB · on the draft board

market valueWR41· 931 value· tier 36· ▲ up 104 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
11.1PPG
+1.4 vs 2025 avg (9.7) · 3 games
Not enough gamesSmall sample · under 4 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Love
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

11.1
Avg PPG (split)
10.5
Median week
13.5
Ceiling
9.3
Floor
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
3%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 4 chances
-3.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (GB)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (GB)

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (2) to tell whether the 3.5-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with love, Reed averaged 11.1 PPG1.4 more than the 9.7 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 147
6675% bust5% @1.5x221

Expect about 147 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 66 and 221, with a 75% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

5 games · 9.7 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1DETW345138%!Lovesoft13.5
14CHIW431047%Lovesoft9.3
15@DENL555065%Lovetough10.5
16@CHIL335064%Willissoft7.1
17BALL441051%Willissoft8.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — GBvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
MIA
Wk 16
@CHI
Wk 17
HOU
Full season
Wk 1
@MIN
Wk 2
@NYJ
Wk 3
ATL
Wk 4
@TB
Wk 5
CHI
Wk 6
DAL
Wk 7
@DET
Wk 8
CAR
Wk 9
@NE
Wk 10
MIN
Wk 12
@LA
Wk 13
@NO
Wk 14
BUF
Wk 15
MIA
Wk 16
@CHI
Wk 17
HOU
Wk 18
DET

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.