Zay Flowers
WR · BAL · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Likely noise: This 0.7-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±7.5), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.
In games with jackson, Flowers averaged 14.5 PPG — 0.2 more than the 14.3 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 211 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 95 and 318, with a 39% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
17 games · 14.3 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @BUFL | 7 | 143 | 1 | 90% | Jackson | tough | 28.1 |
| 2 | CLEW | 7 | 75 | 0 | 79% | Jackson | mid | 14.9 |
| 3 | DETL | 2 | 13 | 0 | 86% | Jackson | soft | 3.3 |
| 4 | @KCL | 7 | 74 | 0 | 87% | Jackson | tough | 14.4 |
| 5 | HOUL | 5 | 72 | 0 | 84% | Rush | tough | 12.2 |
| 6 | LAL | 6 | 46 | 0 | 91% | Rush | soft | 8.6 |
| 8 | CHIW | 7 | 63 | 0 | 95% | Huntley | soft | 14.1 |
| 9 | @MIAW | 5 | 64 | 0 | 82% | Jackson | mid | 11.4 |
| 10 | @MINW | 4 | 75 | 0 | 83% | Jackson | tough | 12.1 |
| 11 | @CLEW | 3 | 78 | 0 | 89% | Jackson | mid | 11.3 |
| 12 | NYJW | 5 | 58 | 0 | 84% | Jackson | mid | 11.9 |
| 13 | CINL | 2 | 6 | 0 | 95% | Jackson | tough | 0.6 |
| 14 | PITL | 8 | 124 | 0 | 92% | Jackson | soft | 20.6 |
| 15 | @CINW | 3 | 68 | 1 | 78% | Jackson | tough | 15.8 |
| 16 | NEL | 7 | 84 | 0 | 89% | Huntley | mid | 21.2 |
| 17 | @GBW | 4 | 30 | 1 | 68% | Huntley | mid | 13.0 |
| 18 | @PITL | 4 | 138 | 2 | 98% | Jackson | soft | 29.8 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.8yd (3.9 → 3yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.