TSTrueSplitsthe fantasy stats that show their work

Josh Downs

WR · IND · on the draft board

8.6PPG
+0 vs 2025 avg (8.7) · 11 games
Likely noise
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Jones
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

8.6
Avg PPG (split)
6.4
Median week
17.7
Ceiling
1.3
Floor
Usage & role context — 2025Live · Free
8%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 15 chances
-0.1%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (IND)
◆ What the average was hiding

Likely noise: This 0-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±4.7), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.

In games with jones, Downs averaged 8.6 PPG0 fewer than the 8.7 PPG season line your draft board shows.