TrueSplits

Dalton Kincaid

TE · BUF · on the draft board

market valueTE15· 419 value· tier 39· ▲ up 45 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
10.8PPG
+0.2 vs 2025 avg (10.5) · 11 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Allen
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

10.8
Avg PPG (split)
9.8
Median week
22.1
Ceiling
0
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: streakyTD-reliance: 25%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
5%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 9 chances
-2.5%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (BUF)
11%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (BUF)
9.1
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.4 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
13%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+1.0
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (1) to tell whether the 3-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with allen, Kincaid averaged 10.8 PPG0.2 more than the 10.5 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 124
6439% bust20% @1.5x184

Expect about 124 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 64 and 184, with a 39% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

12 games · 10.5 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1BALW448151%Allentough14.8
2@NYJW437048%Allensoft7.7
3MIAW566155%Allensoft17.6
4NOW128137%!Allentough9.8
5NEL6108054%Allensoft16.8
8@CARW123022%!Allenmid3.3
9KCW6101135%!Allentough22.1
10@MIAL237026%!Allensoft5.7
14CINW441134%!Allensoft14.1
15@NEW334036%!Allensoft6.4
16@CLEW00038%!Allentough0.0
18NYJW348013%!Trubiskysoft7.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 2Wk 20

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.2yd (3.43.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — BUFvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Full season
Wk 1
@HOU
Wk 2
DET
Wk 3
LAC
Wk 4
NE
Wk 5
@LA
Wk 6
@LV
Wk 8
BAL
Wk 9
@MIN
Wk 10
@NYJ
Wk 11
MIA
Wk 12
KC
Wk 13
@NE
Wk 14
@GB
Wk 15
CHI
Wk 16
@DEN
Wk 17
@MIA
Wk 18
NYJ

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.