Xavier Hutchinson
WR · HOU · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (3) to tell whether the 1.8-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
In games with stroud, Hutchinson averaged 6.5 PPG — 0.3 more than the 6.1 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 83 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 37 and 125, with a 95% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
16 games · 6.1 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @LAL | 2 | 30 | 0 | 68% | Stroud | soft | 5.5 |
| 2 | TBL | 2 | 29 | 0 | 57% | Stroud | mid | 4.9 |
| 3 | @JAXL | 3 | 16 | 0 | 62% | Stroud | mid | 4.6 |
| 4 | TENW | 2 | 17 | 0 | 68% | Stroud | soft | 3.7 |
| 5 | @BALW | 3 | 18 | 2 | 67% | Stroud | soft | 16.8 |
| 7 | @SEAL | 1 | 13 | 0 | 78% | Stroud | tough | 2.3 |
| 8 | SFW | 5 | 69 | 1 | 71% | Stroud | soft | 17.9 |
| 9 | DENL | 3 | 30 | 0 | 63% | Mills | tough | 6.0 |
| 11 | @TENW | 3 | 42 | 0 | 53% | Mills | soft | 7.2 |
| 12 | BUFW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36%! | Mills | tough | 0.9 |
| 13 | @INDW | 2 | 39 | 0 | 55% | Stroud | soft | 5.9 |
| 14 | @KCW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40% | Stroud | tough | 0.0 |
| 15 | ARIW | 1 | 16 | 0 | 30%! | Stroud | mid | 2.6 |
| 16 | LVW | 1 | 4 | 0 | 49% | Stroud | mid | 1.4 |
| 17 | @LACW | 2 | 21 | 0 | 48% | Stroud | tough | 4.9 |
| 18 | INDW | 5 | 84 | 0 | 79% | Stroud | soft | 13.4 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.3yd (2.8 → 2.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.