Chase Brown
RB · CIN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Signal: This 7.4-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±7.3).
In games with burrow, Brown averaged 21 PPG — 4.4 more than the 16.6 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Boom/bust watch: 42% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.
Expect about 230 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 75 and 377, with a 25% chance of finishing below replacement (148).
Game log
17 games · 16.6 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rush yd | TD | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CLEW | 43 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 75% | Burrow | mid | 13.1 |
| 2 | JAXW | 47 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 71% | Browning | tough | 8.5 |
| 3 | @MINL | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 55% | Browning | tough | 6.0 |
| 4 | @DENL | 40 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 73% | Browning | tough | 10.1 |
| 5 | DETL | 27 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 53% | Browning | tough | 11.8 |
| 6 | @GBL | 42 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 54% | Flacco | mid | 8.9 |
| 7 | PITW | 108 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 | 63% | Flacco | tough | 12.0 |
| 8 | NYJL | 73 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 54% | Flacco | soft | 25.5 |
| 9 | CHIL | 37 | 0 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 96% | Flacco | soft | 19.2 |
| 11 | @PITL | 99 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 82% | Flacco | tough | 18.7 |
| 12 | NEL | 107 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 89% | Flacco | tough | 15.0 |
| 13 | @BALW | 78 | 0 | 7 | 35 | 0 | 60% | Burrow | soft | 18.3 |
| 14 | @BUFL | 23 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 67% | Burrow | soft | 18.5 |
| 15 | BALL | 53 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 62% | Burrow | soft | 16.0 |
| 16 | @MIAW | 66 | 1 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 61% | Burrow | mid | 32.9 |
| 17 | ARIW | 101 | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 61% | Burrow | soft | 29.1 |
| 18 | CLEL | 72 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 56% | Burrow | mid | 19.0 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.2 (0.4 → 0.6). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.