Michael Wilson
WR · ARI · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Signal: This 12.9-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±10.6).
In games with brissett, Wilson averaged 16.8 PPG — 3.8 more than the 13 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 163 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 73 and 246, with a 62% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
17 games · 13.0 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @NOW | 1 | 5 | 0 | 67% | Murray | tough | 1.5 |
| 2 | CARW | 1 | 11 | 1 | 69% | Murray | tough | 8.1 |
| 3 | @SFL | 1 | 5 | 0 | 74% | Murray | soft | 1.5 |
| 4 | SEAL | 3 | 15 | 0 | 97% | Murray | tough | 4.5 |
| 5 | TENL | 2 | 16 | 0 | 69% | Murray | soft | 3.6 |
| 6 | @INDL | 4 | 44 | 0 | 75% | Brissett | soft | 8.4 |
| 7 | GBL | 3 | 40 | 0 | 82% | Brissett | mid | 7.0 |
| 9 | @DALW | 3 | 61 | 0 | 72% | Brissett | soft | 9.1 |
| 10 | @SEAL | 4 | 34 | 0 | 92% | Brissett | tough | 7.4 |
| 11 | SFL | 15 | 185 | 0 | 82% | Brissett | soft | 33.5 |
| 12 | JAXL | 10 | 118 | 0 | 82% | Brissett | mid | 21.8 |
| 13 | @TBL | 3 | 36 | 0 | 93% | Brissett | mid | 6.6 |
| 14 | LAL | 11 | 142 | 2 | 79% | Brissett | soft | 37.2 |
| 15 | @HOUL | 5 | 54 | 1 | 85% | Brissett | tough | 16.4 |
| 16 | ATLL | 2 | 52 | 1 | 86% | Brissett | mid | 13.2 |
| 17 | @CINL | 5 | 89 | 1 | 86% | Brissett | tough | 19.9 |
| 18 | @LAL | 5 | 99 | 1 | 93% | Brissett | soft | 20.9 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: -0.1yd (2.3 → 2.3yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.