TrueSplits

Malik Willis

QB · MIA · on the draft board

market valueQB26· 174 value· tier 42· ▲ up 27 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
3.2PPG
-9.6 vs 2025 avg (12.8) · 2 games
Not enough gamesSmall sample · under 4 games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Love
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

3.2
Avg PPG (split)
3.2
Median week
5.8
Ceiling
0.6
Floor
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
3%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 5 chances
-3.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (GB)
12%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (GB)

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (2) to tell whether the 19.2-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with love, Willis averaged 3.2 PPG9.6 fewer than the 12.8 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 205
10085% bust5% @1.5x267

Expect about 205 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 100 and 267, with a 85% chance of finishing below replacement (257).

Game log

4 games · 12.8 PPG avg
WkOppPass ydTDINTRush ydTDSnapQBDefPts
11@NYGW61016013%!Lovemid5.8
12MINW700309%!Lovetough0.6
16@CHIL1211044064%Willissoft13.2
17BALL2881060283%Willismid31.5

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — MIAvs QB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 2 tough
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Full season
Wk 1
@LV
Wk 2
@SF
Wk 3
KC
Wk 4
@MIN
Wk 5
CIN
Wk 7
@NYJ
Wk 8
NE
Wk 9
DET
Wk 10
@IND
Wk 11
@BUF
Wk 12
NYJ
Wk 13
@DEN
Wk 14
CHI
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Wk 18
@NE

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to QBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.