Jake Ferguson
TE · DAL · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Small sample: Too few games on one side (1) to tell whether the 10.2-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.
In games with prescott, Ferguson averaged 11.7 PPG — 0.6 more than the 11.1 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 132 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 68 and 196, with a 34% chance of finishing below replacement (110).
Game log
17 games · 11.1 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @PHIL | 5 | 23 | 0 | 77% | Prescott | tough | 7.3 |
| 2 | NYGW | 9 | 78 | 0 | 73% | Prescott | tough | 16.8 |
| 3 | @CHIL | 13 | 82 | 0 | 57% | Prescott | mid | 21.2 |
| 4 | GBL | 7 | 40 | 1 | 78% | Prescott | mid | 17.0 |
| 5 | @NYJW | 7 | 49 | 2 | 55% | Prescott | soft | 23.9 |
| 6 | @CARL | 3 | 33 | 1 | 67% | Prescott | mid | 12.3 |
| 7 | WASW | 7 | 29 | 2 | 66% | Prescott | soft | 21.9 |
| 8 | @DENL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59% | Prescott | mid | 0.0 |
| 9 | ARIL | 5 | 50 | 0 | 90% | Prescott | soft | 8.0 |
| 11 | @LVW | 4 | 16 | 1 | 63% | Prescott | mid | 11.6 |
| 12 | PHIW | 5 | 60 | 0 | 69% | Prescott | tough | 11.1 |
| 13 | KCW | 5 | 36 | 0 | 71% | Prescott | tough | 8.6 |
| 14 | @DETL | 5 | 58 | 0 | 80% | Prescott | mid | 10.8 |
| 15 | MINL | 2 | 16 | 0 | 71% | Prescott | tough | 3.6 |
| 16 | LACL | 3 | 19 | 0 | 69% | Prescott | tough | 4.9 |
| 17 | @WASW | 1 | 6 | 1 | 29%! | Prescott | soft | 7.6 |
| 18 | @NYGL | 1 | 5 | 0 | 60% | III | tough | 1.5 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: 0yd (3.4 → 3.5yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.