Isaiah Likely
TE · NYG · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Signal: This 4.3-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±4.1).
In games with jackson, Likely averaged 6.9 PPG — 1.8 more than the 5.1 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Boom/bust watch: 52% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.
Expect about 132 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 68 and 196, with a 34% chance of finishing below replacement (110).
Game log
12 games · 5.1 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HOUL | 1 | 12 | 0 | 53% | Rush | tough | 2.2 |
| 6 | LAL | 2 | 6 | 0 | 81% | Rush | mid | 2.6 |
| 8 | CHIW | 2 | 8 | 0 | 58% | Huntley | mid | 2.8 |
| 9 | @MIAW | 3 | 60 | 0 | 59% | Jackson | soft | 9.0 |
| 10 | @MINW | 2 | 17 | 0 | 56% | Jackson | tough | 3.7 |
| 11 | @CLEW | 2 | 15 | 0 | 52% | Jackson | tough | 3.5 |
| 12 | NYJW | 1 | 10 | 0 | 57% | Jackson | soft | 2.0 |
| 13 | CINL | 5 | 95 | 0 | 52% | Jackson | soft | 12.5 |
| 14 | PITL | 4 | 25 | 1 | 60% | Jackson | soft | 12.5 |
| 16 | NEL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40% | Huntley | soft | 0.0 |
| 17 | @GBW | 3 | 27 | 0 | 70% | Huntley | mid | 5.7 |
| 18 | @PITL | 2 | 32 | 0 | 49% | Jackson | soft | 5.2 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.