TrueSplits

Jalen Nailor

WR · LV · on the draft board

market valueWR60· 206 value· tier 42· ▼ down 171 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
No games match this split. Loosen a condition to see his real number — TrueSplits never invents one.
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · all games
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

0
Avg PPG (split)
0
Median week
0
Ceiling
0
Floor
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
10%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 13 chances
-1.6%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (MIN)
13%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (MIN)
13.0
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
2.4 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
18%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
+1.4
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (0) to tell whether the 5.9-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

Across all 0 games, Jalen Nailor averaged 0 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 112
5094% bust5% @1.5x168

Expect about 112 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 50 and 168, with a 94% chance of finishing below replacement (183).

Game log

17 games · 5.9 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@CHIW128088%McCarthysoft3.8
2ATLL3310100%McCarthymid6.1
3CINW337083%Wentztough6.7
4@PITL12163%Wentzsoft9.2
5@CLEW327065%Wentzmid7.2
7PHIL237059%Wentztough5.7
8@LACL00069%Wentztough0.0
9@DETW116053%McCarthysoft2.6
10BALL5124168%McCarthysoft23.4
11CHIL116060%McCarthysoft2.6
12@GBL00045%McCarthymid0.0
13@SEAL00069%Brosmertough0.0
14WASW330058%McCarthysoft6.0
15@DALW347251%McCarthysoft19.5
16@NYGW00062%McCarthysoft0.0
17DETW00043%Brosmersoft0.0
18GBW349075%McCarthymid7.9

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — LVvs WR · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 1 soft, 1 tough
Wk 15
DEN
Wk 16
TEN
Wk 17
@ARI
Full season
Wk 1
MIA
Wk 2
@LAC
Wk 3
@NO
Wk 4
KC
Wk 5
@NE
Wk 6
BUF
Wk 7
LA
Wk 8
@NYJ
Wk 9
@SF
Wk 10
SEA
Wk 11
@DEN
Wk 12
@CLE
Wk 14
LAC
Wk 15
DEN
Wk 16
TEN
Wk 17
@ARI
Wk 18
@KC

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.