TrueSplits

Greg Dulcich

TE · MIA · on the draft board

5.8PPG
-1.1 vs 2025 avg (7) · 6 games
Not enough games
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Tagovailoa
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

5.8
Avg PPG (split)
5.5
Median week
9.9
Ceiling
3.2
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 0%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
6%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 8 chances
-3.4%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (MIA)
13%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (MIA)

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Small sample: Too few games on one side (3) to tell whether the 3.4-PPG gap is real — a small-sample hint, not a finding.

In games with tagovailoa, Dulcich averaged 5.8 PPG1.1 fewer than the 7 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Boom/bust watch: 49% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 85
4478% bust5% @1.5x126

Expect about 85 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 44 and 126, with a 78% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

9 games · 7.0 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
9BALL549036%!Tagovailoatough9.9
10BUFW122058%Tagovailoatough3.2
11WASW218054%Tagovailoasoft3.8
13NOW224037%!Tagovailoatough4.4
14@NYJW341054%Tagovailoasoft7.1
15@PITL246038%!Tagovailoasoft6.6
16CINL346029%!Ewerssoft5.6
17TBW558136%!Ewerssoft16.1
18@NEL331052%Ewerssoft6.1

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — MIAvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 3 tough
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Full season
Wk 1
@LV
Wk 2
@SF
Wk 3
KC
Wk 4
@MIN
Wk 5
CIN
Wk 7
@NYJ
Wk 8
NE
Wk 9
DET
Wk 10
@IND
Wk 11
@BUF
Wk 12
NYJ
Wk 13
@DEN
Wk 14
CHI
Wk 15
@GB
Wk 16
LAC
Wk 17
BUF
Wk 18
@NE

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.