TrueSplits

Kyle Pitts

TE · ATL · on the draft board

market valueTE8· 1,578 value· tier 32· ▼ down 201 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
16.2PPG
+3.8 vs 2025 avg (12.4) · 8 games
Uncertain
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · With Cousins
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

16.2
Avg PPG (split)
15
Median week
45.6
Ceiling
3.6
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: volatileTD-reliance: 19%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
10%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 13 chances
-4.7%
Team pass rate (PROE)
run-leaning play-caller (ATL)
9%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (ATL)
7.2
Target depth (aDOT)
avg air yards per target
3.6 yd
Separation
avg at the catch point
21%
Air-yards share
of the team's intended air yards
-0.9
YAC vs expected
yards after catch over expectation

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Uncertain: This 7.1-PPG gap is on the edge of the margin of error — suggestive, but this sample can't cleanly separate it from his ±9.9 week-to-week swing.

In games with cousins, Pitts averaged 16.2 PPG3.8 more than the 12.4 PPG season line your draft board shows.

Boom/bust watch: 50% of the points in this split came from just 2 games — the median week is lower than the average implies.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 132
6834% bust25% @1.5x196

Expect about 132 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 68 and 196, with a 34% chance of finishing below replacement (110).

Game log

17 games · 12.4 PPG avg
WkOppRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1TBL759078%Jr.soft12.9
2@MINW437080%Jr.tough7.7
3@CARL439082%Jr.mid7.9
4WASW570174%Jr.soft18.0
6BUFW318093%Jr.tough4.8
7@SFL762082%Jr.mid13.2
8MIAL959092%Cousinssoft14.9
9@NEL438095%Jr.soft7.8
10@INDL238092%Jr.soft5.8
11CARL214083%Jr.mid3.4
12@NOW225095%Cousinstough4.5
13@NYJL782091%Cousinssoft15.2
14SEAL690092%Cousinssoft15.0
15@TBW11166396%Cousinssoft45.6
16@ARIW757187%Cousinssoft18.7
17LAW216092%Cousinsmid3.6
18NOW658092%Cousinstough11.8

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Separation — week by weekNext Gen Stats · 2025
Wk 1Wk 18

Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.6yd (3.23.8yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.

Schedule ahead — ATLvs TE · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 2 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
@WAS
Wk 16
TB
Wk 17
NO
Full season
Wk 1
@PIT
Wk 2
CAR
Wk 3
@GB
Wk 4
@NO
Wk 5
BAL
Wk 6
CHI
Wk 7
SF
Wk 8
@TB
Wk 9
CIN
Wk 10
KC
Wk 12
@MIN
Wk 13
DET
Wk 14
@CLE
Wk 15
@WAS
Wk 16
TB
Wk 17
NO
Wk 18
@CAR

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to TEs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.