TrueSplits

Kenny Gainwell

RB · TB · on the draft board

market valueRB36· 915 value· tier 36· ▲ up 118 (30d)— FantasyCalc · 12-team PPR
17.8PPG
+4.7 vs 2025 avg (13) · 8 games
Signal
⚡ What changed
Since he stepped into a lead role (Wk 11):17.8 PPGup from 8.8
SeasonLive · Free
Which QB was under centerLive · Free
Game script & venueLive · Free
Matchup (defense vs his position)Live · Free
Snap-share floor (your definition of “starting”)
Honest filtersLive · Free
Scoring
Week-by-week fantasy points2025 · since Wk 11
Counted in splitExcludedHover a bar for the game

Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.

17.8
Avg PPG (split)
18.9
Median week
29.5
Ceiling
6.5
Floor
start/sit readConsistency: steadyTD-reliance: 21%
Usage & role context — 2025Prior season
25%
Red-zone role
share of team RZ opps · 40 chances
-0.2%
Team pass rate (PROE)
balanced play-caller (PIT)
9%
Team play-action
of dropbacks (PIT)
+0.58
Rush yds over exp / att
efficiency vs his blocking
32%
Stacked boxes
carries vs 8+ defenders

Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.

◆ What the average was hiding

Signal: This 8.9-PPG gap in his averages is well outside the margin of error for this sample — real signal, not noise (his individual games still swing ±9.4).

Across all 8 games, Kenny Gainwell averaged 17.8 PPG. Toggle a condition to see how honest that number really is — that gap is where drafts are won.

Season outlook · 10yr @ this costmedian 119
3968% bust5% @1.5x194

Expect about 119 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 39 and 194, with a 68% chance of finishing below replacement (148).

Game log

17 games · 13.0 PPG avg
WkOppRush ydTDRecYdsTDSnapQBDefPts
1@NYJW19034054%Rodgerssoft5.3
2SEAL200316042%Rodgerstough6.6
3@NEW161110026%!Rodgerstough9.6
4MINW992635077%Rodgerstough31.4
6CLEW220614034%!Rodgersmid9.6
7@CINL14021039%!Rodgerssoft3.5
8GBL31024038%!Rodgersmid3.5
9INDW-10435037%!Rodgerstough7.4
10@LACL0024052%Rodgerstough2.4
11CINW240781263%Rudolphsoft29.5
12@CHIL920630051%Rudolphsoft18.2
13BUFL200225042%Rodgerssoft6.5
14@BALW151627048%Rodgerssoft16.2
15MIAW800746052%Rodgersmid19.6
16@DETW500578154%Rodgerstough23.8
17@CLEL260312068%Rodgersmid6.8
18BALW101864067%Rodgerssoft21.4

Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.

Schedule ahead — TBvs RB · 2025 defenses
Fantasy playoffs (wk 1517) · 0 soft, 0 tough
Wk 15
NO
Wk 16
@ATL
Wk 17
LA
Full season
Wk 1
@CIN
Wk 2
CLE
Wk 3
MIN
Wk 4
GB
Wk 5
@DAL
Wk 6
PIT
Wk 7
@CAR
Wk 8
ATL
Wk 9
@CHI
Wk 11
@DET
Wk 12
CAR
Wk 13
LAC
Wk 14
@BAL
Wk 15
NO
Wk 16
@ATL
Wk 17
LA
Wk 18
@NO

Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to RBs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.