Ja'Marr Chase
WR · CIN · on the draft board
Source: nflverse play-by-play, computed from real snaps — not an AI guess. Deterministic and reproducible. Hover any bar to see the game behind it.
Next Gen Stats via nflverse; team play-action via FTN Data (via nflverse). Prior-season context, shown beside the split — never folded into it.
Likely noise: This 3.2-PPG gap is within the margin of error — no bigger than his normal week-to-week swing (±10.3), so treat it as noise, not a real edge.
In games with burrow, Chase averaged 17.8 PPG — 1.8 fewer than the 19.6 PPG season line your draft board shows.
Expect about 272 points. Ten years of drafts at this cost landed between 122 and 410, with a 23% chance of finishing below replacement (183).
Game log
16 games · 19.6 PPG avg| Wk | Opp | Rec | Yds | TD | Snap | QB | Def | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @CLEW | 2 | 26 | 0 | 87% | Burrow | mid | 4.6 |
| 2 | JAXW | 14 | 165 | 1 | 96% | Browning | mid | 36.5 |
| 3 | @MINL | 5 | 50 | 0 | 86% | Browning | tough | 8.9 |
| 4 | @DENL | 5 | 23 | 0 | 96% | Browning | tough | 7.3 |
| 5 | DETL | 6 | 110 | 2 | 92% | Browning | soft | 29.0 |
| 6 | @GBL | 10 | 94 | 1 | 100% | Flacco | mid | 25.1 |
| 7 | PITW | 16 | 161 | 1 | 99% | Flacco | soft | 38.1 |
| 8 | NYJL | 12 | 91 | 0 | 98% | Flacco | mid | 21.1 |
| 9 | CHIL | 6 | 111 | 0 | 99% | Flacco | soft | 17.1 |
| 11 | @PITL | 3 | 30 | 0 | 97% | Flacco | soft | 6.0 |
| 13 | @BALW | 7 | 110 | 0 | 99% | Burrow | soft | 18.0 |
| 14 | @BUFL | 5 | 44 | 0 | 100% | Burrow | tough | 10.2 |
| 15 | BALL | 10 | 132 | 0 | 97% | Burrow | soft | 23.2 |
| 16 | @MIAW | 9 | 109 | 0 | 87% | Burrow | mid | 19.9 |
| 17 | ARIW | 7 | 60 | 2 | 77% | Burrow | mid | 25.0 |
| 18 | CLEL | 8 | 96 | 1 | 100% | Burrow | mid | 23.6 |
Every TrueValue on this site is an average of exactly these rows — filtered by the conditions you pick above. !marks a game he didn’t finish, which durable-role splits leave out.
Last 4 weeks vs earlier: +0.7yd (2.9 → 3.6yd). Tracking data, not box-score points — a move here often shows up before the scoring does.
Green = that defense allowed the most fantasy points to WRs last season, red = the fewest. Matchup is a tiebreaker, not a verdict — it moves a close call, not a clear one.